USD gains as uncertainty remains present

The USD tended to gain ground against its major counterparts yesterday as the uncertainty in the markets seems to remain at high levels. The fact that the two parties seem to fail to reach an agreement regarding a possible fiscal stimulus tended to fuel market worries and analysts seem to note that possibly such a stimulus could be agreed after the elections. At the same time the risk appetite of the markets seemed to be on reverse, given that the hopes for a possible vaccine until year’s end are fading away after J&J halted its trials temporarily while another company also paused a coronavirus antibody treatment due to safety concerns. Also, the slowing down of the headline inflation rate on a month on month basis for September did not help the greenback. Also, the possibility of Biden getting elected seems to be gaining ground within the market, while also the possibility of the Democrats gaining control over the Senate cannot be excluded. We expect market sentiment to remain the main driver for the USD and if market worries continue to dominate the market, we could see the USD gaining more safe haven inflows and vice versa.
USD/CHF rose breaking the 0.9105 (S1) resistance line, now turned to support. As the pair seems to have stabilised in the Asian session and at the same time has broken the downward trendline incepted since the 29th of September, we switch our bearish outlook for the pair in favour of a sideways bias initially, before the pair decides on the direction of its next leg. Should the pair come under the selling interest of the market, we could see it breaking the 0.9105 (S1) and aim for the 0.9025 (S2) level. Should buyers be in control of the index’s direction, we could see it breaking the 0.9200 (R1) line aiming for the 0.9285 (R2) level.

GBP weakens as Brexit deadline approaches

The pound weakened against the USD yesterday but also against the EUR and JPY, as the deadline set by the EU and the UK for the Brexit negotiations on the 15th of October nears. Media seem to report that EU’s prerequisites to enter the last phase of the negotiations have increased, making the situation even harder, despite the two sides reportedly nearing a possible deal in the past weeks. At the same time, it should be noted that the UK is severely hit by the pandemic and the UK government has announced stricter measures to counter it. We expect market focus to remain on these two issues for the pound, possibly with more emphasis being placed on the Brexit negotiations and should there be signs that the two sides are nearing a deal we could see the pound strengthening. At the same time the possibility of the BoE employing negative rates seems to be weighing on the pound, while yesterday’s release of UK’s August employment data, increased worries for the UK employment market.
Cable tumbled yesterday breaking the 1.3015 (R2) and the 1.2945 (R1) support levels now turned to resistance. As the pair’s bullish movement was abruptly interrupted, we tend maintain bearish outlook for the pair given the current weakness of the pound yet fundamentals on both sides of the pair could affect its direction. Should the bulls regain control over cable, we could see it breaking the 1.2945 (R1) line, aiming for the 1.3015 (R2) resistance level. Should the bears maintain control, we could see GBP/USD, breaking the 1.2885 (S1) line and aim for the 1.2800 (S2) level.

Other economic highlights today and early tomorrow

In the European session today, we note Eurozone’s industrial production growth rate for August. During the American session, we get the US PPI rate for December and just before the Asian session starts we get the API weekly crude oil inventories figure. During Thursday’s Asian session, we get Australia’s employment data for September as well as China’s inflation rates for the same month. As for speakers please note that ECB President Christine Lagarde, ECB’s Mersch and Lane, Richmond Fed President Barkin, Fed’s Quarles, BoC Deputy Governor Lane, RBA Governor Philip Lowe and Dallas Fed President Kaplan speak.