6月份美国通货膨胀降温

The USD tumbled against its counterparts on Wednesday as the US CPI rates for June slowed down more than expected both at a headline as well as at a core level. Market expectations for the Fed to ease its aggressive hawkish stance tended to intensify with some even predicting that the Fed’s rate hiking cycle may come to an early end. For the time being and according to Fed Fund Futures the market seems to continue to expect another rate hike by the bank in its next meeting, yet the expectations for another rate hike after that seem to have been erased , while a rate cut is also expected in Q1 2024. It’s characteristic that on a technical level the USD continued to weaken against the JPY with USD/JPY delivering an over 600 pips drop over the past seven days, by breaking the 136.80 (R1) support line, now turned to resistance. We tend to maintain a bearish outlook for the pair as long as the downward trendline remains intact. Yet, we would also note that the RSI indicator remains below the reading of 30, showcasing the dominance of the bears, yet may also imply that the pair has reached oversold levels and may be ripe for a correction higher. Should the selling interest be extended we may see USD/JPY breaking the 137.45 (S1) support line and aim for the 135.70 (S2) level. If the pair finds buying orders along its path, we may see it reversing course, breaking the prementioned downward trendline in a first signal that the downward motion has been interrupted, break the 136.80 (R1) line and aim for the 140.80 (R2) resistance level. The news tended to provide a boost to US stockmarkets as well, as all three major US stockmarket indexes, namely the Dow Jones, S&P 500 and Nasdaq were in the greens and as the earnings season starts.

回到外汇市场和大洋彼岸，我们注意到英镑交易者似乎仍充满信心，可能也因为英国央行对英国金融稳定进行的压力测试的结果。结果显示，英国贷款机构的资本充足，能够度过可能的经济危机，这种情况实际上使英国央行能够保持其鹰派做法，并在未来几个月继续加息。预计英镑交易者今天将关注5月国民生产总值增长率以及同月制造业产出增长率的发布，预计并不乐观。如果没有意外的话，我们预计英镑可能会走弱，但即便如此，考虑到更广泛的情况，这可能是暂时的.

最后并非不重要，我们要注意的是中国贸易数据的发布. 令人担忧的是中国出口进一步萎缩, 而贸易顺差却在进口下降的情况下扩大。尽管如此，这一消息意味着中国经济的经济活动减弱，可能会进一步承受压力，但我们预计中国经济将在年底触底.