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The US dollar retreated yesterday but stayed relatively elevated however, in anticipation of the CPI rates due out on Wednesday. Since there are no major financial news releases today, the greenback is expected to remain calm, ahead of tomorrow’s inflation rates results, which according to estimates, the pace of price increases started to peak. We highlight though on the other hand the possibility of fundamentals leading the market sentiment in today’s European and American sessions given the prementioned absence of high impact financial releases. The US stock markets edged higher yesterday, as investors reassessed the outlook of monetary policy and today we would like to note besides the earnings releases due out, IBM’s dividend payout. WTI’s rose yesterday, moving towards the $90 barrel level, on news regarding the revival of the 2015 Iran nuclear accord and the European Union is awaiting approval from Washington and Tehran within a couple weeks. Should the deal be approved, then we could potentially set the stage for a boost in Iran’s oil exports by at least 1million barrels per day, however the approval seems unlikely. Furthermore, oil traders look forward for the US weekly API Crude oil stock figure later today providing a snapshot of the demand side of oil. Gold prices were on the rise yesterday, mainly due to the dollar’s underperformance and their negative correlation. Tomorrow’s CPI reports are of particular interest for gold traders as the precious metal is also used as an inflation hedging instrument. In today’s Asian session, we note the results of Australia’s NAB Business Confidence indicator which pointed to a particular notable strength in business sentiment as optimism rose and at the same time showed an improvement of the current conditions in the Australian economy in the month of July. On the other hand, we cannot contain our fundamental worries for the possibility of China proceeding with military action on the island of Taiwan. It’s characteristic that Taiwan’s foreign minister Wu warned earlier today in a press conference that “China has used the drills … to prepare for the invasion of Taiwan” according to Reuters and urged “international support to safeguard peace and stability across the Taiwan Strait”. It should be noted that Taiwan straits are of the busiest shipping routes worldwide and tensions could halt trading activities. We highlight the possible adverse risks for the Chinese economy of the matter, but also the closely linked Australian economy, as well as the outlook for global economy as a whole, given its severity.
昨天黄金价格上涨，主要是由于美元表现不佳及其负相关。明天的 CPI 报告对黄金交易者特别感兴趣，因为贵金属也被用作通胀对冲工具。 在今天的亚洲时段，我们注意到澳大利亚 NAB 商业信心指标的结果表明，随着乐观情绪的上升，商业信心特别显着增强，同时表明 7 月份澳大利亚经济的当前状况有所改善。 另一方面，对于中国可能在台湾岛采取军事行动的可能性，我们无法控制我们的根本担忧。
据路透社报道，台湾外长吴今天早些时候在新闻发布会上警告说，“中国利用演习……为入侵台湾做准备”，并敦促“国际社会支持维护台海和平与稳定” ”。 值得注意的是，台湾海峡是全球最繁忙的航线之一，紧张局势可能导致贸易活动停止。It should be noted that Taiwan straits are of the busiest shipping routes worldwide and tensions could halt trading activities. 我们强调此事可能对中国经济、密切相关的澳大利亚经济以及鉴于其严重性对全球经济的前景构成不利风险。
今日其他亮点:
明天在亚洲时段，我们注意到日本7 月份企业商品价格和中国7 月份PPI 和CPI 年率的公布。
美元/日元4小时走势图
Support: 133.60 (S1), 131.30 (S2), 130.40 (S3)
Resistance: 135.20 (R1), 136.70 (R2), 139.20 (R3)
澳元/美元4小时走势图
支撑: 0.6960 (S1), 0.6860 (S2), 0.6790 (S3)
阻力: 0.7030 (R1), 0.7115 (R2), 0.7200 (R3)
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