关注每日评论,做出明智的交易决策

注册

Geopolitical tensions seem to be aiding Gold’s ascent

Gold at the time of this report, seems to be moving in an upwards fashion, gold report since last week. We note the high volatility in the gold market, as tensions in the Middle East appear to be rising, with the risk of a regional conflict, may keep volatility elevated until the current conflict is resolved.

In this report, we aim to shed light on the catalysts driving gold’s price, assess its future outlook and conclude with a technical analysis.

Tensions in the Middle East

Over the weekend, tensions appear to have escalated in the Middle East, causing great concern over the stability of the region. The increasing Geopolitical tensions carry the risk of spilling into a regional confrontation, which may destabilize the Middle East and given the region’s significance to the global markets, it may have a significant impact on global economies which are not directly involved. Furthermore, it would appear that the heightened risks of a regional conflict appear to be making their way into the commodities markets, in particular gold. Therefore, given the precious metals safe haven status, it appears that the particular relationship is once again being evident, as gold appears to have received safe haven inflows, which may have aided to the precious metal’s ascent during today’s trading session.

However, we would like to highlight that the US September Non-Farm Payrolls figure, vastly exceeded market expectations last Friday. As such, with a perceived tight labor market, the Fed may have to hike in their next monetary policy meeting, which is due to take place at the beginning of November. The possibility of a hike by the Fed, could support the greenback and due to their inverse relationship with the precious, it could weigh on the price of gold.

Central Banks continue their gold hoarding spree

According to the World Gold Council, Central Banks have collectively increased their gold reserves for the third row in a month, adding 77 trillion to global official reserves during the month of August, which is a 38% up-tick from July. The continued addition of gold reserves, on a macro-economic level, may provide some support the precious metal over the long run, thus potentially mitigating impacts from factors which may negatively affect the price of gold. Moreover, the gradual but steady increase in gold reserves by central banks, may be indicative of a continued concern by central banks that an economic downturn may be nearing and as such by diversifying into the precious metal, they may be hedging against times of financial uncertainty.

Therefore, on a macro-economic level, we may see the precious metal gaining support in the long run. However, currently high interest rate levels, could potentially overshadow the gold hoarding by central banks, as policymakers have indicated that they may stay at their current levels for a prolonged period of time. As such, we may see demand for the precious weakening, as other interest-bearing assets such as Government bonds, may be more appealing to investors, thus potentially weighing on the precious metal.

Gold – Technical Analysis

XAUUSD 4-Hour Chart

An informative Gold Technical Analysis diagram showcasing market trends and patterns in the world of precious metal trading
  • Support: 1820 (S1), 1770 (S2), 1712 (S3)
  • Resistance: 1875 (R1), 1925 (R2), 1980 (R3)

The precious metal appears to be moving in an upwards fashion after opening higher during today’s trading session. We maintain a bullish outlook and supporting our case is the RSI indicator below our 4-Hour Chart which currently registers a figure near 70, implying a strong bullish market sentiment. Yet, we must note the gap formed when the gold market opened today compared to Friday’s closing figure and as such, we may see the precious aiming to close or retrace back to that gap before moving higher.

For our bullish outlook to continue, we would like to see a clear break above the 1875 (R1) resistance level, with the next possible target for the bulls being the 1925 (R2) resistance ceiling. On the other hand, for a bearish outlook, we would like to see a clear break below the 1820 (S1) support level, with the next possible target for the bears being the 1770 (S2) support base.

Lastly, for a neutral outlook, we would like to see the commodity remaining confined between the 1820 (S1) and the 1875 (R1) support and resistance levels respectively. Moreover, the widening of the Bollinger bands imply high market volatility and as such we may see volatile price swings in either direction.

免责声明:
This information is not considered investment advice or an investment recommendation, but instead a marketing communication. IronFX is not responsible for any data or information provided by third parties referenced or hyperlinked, in this communication.

订阅我们的时事通讯



    请注意,您的电子邮件将仅用于营销目的。欲了解更多信息,请阅读我们的 隐私策略
    分享:
    博客搜索
    Affiliate World
    Global
    阿联酋,迪拜
    28 February – 1 March 2022

    IronFX Affiliates

    iFX EXPO Dubai

    22-24 February 2022

    Dubai World Trade Center

    Meet us there!

    Iron世界锦标赛

    总决赛

    美元 奖池*

    *条款与条件适用。

    iron-world
    iron-world

    Iron World

    11月16日 – 12月16日

    最少入金$5,000

    所有交易都涉及风险。
    您可能会损失所有资本。

    The Iron Worlds Championship

    one-million

    美元 奖池*

    planet-usd-thunder
    planet-usd-thunder

    Titania World

    10月 15日 – 11月 15日

    最低存款$3,000

    *T&C apply. All trading involves risk.
    It is possible to lose all your capital.

    Iron世界锦标赛

    one-million

    美元 奖池*

    elements-desktop
    elements-mobile

    Tantalum World

    14 September– 14 October

    Minimum Deposit $500

    *T&C apply. All trading involves risk.
    It is possible to lose all your capital.

    感谢您访问 IronFX

    本网站不针对英国居民,不属于欧洲和MiFID II监管框架,以及英国金融行为管理局手册中规定的规则、指导和保护.

    请让我们知道您想如何进行.

    感谢您访问 IronFX

    本网站不针对欧盟居民,不属于欧洲和MiFID II监管框架的范围。
    如果您仍希望继续访问 IronFX,请单击下方

    Iron世界锦标赛

    one-million

    美元 奖池*

    Phosphora World

    14 August - 13 September

    Minimum Deposit $500

    *T&C apply. All trading involves risk.
    It is possible to lose all your capital.