GBP Rallies on Brexit Optimism: Market Reaction

The pound rallied against the USD, while at the same time strengthened against EUR and JPY as hopes for an agreed Brexit were refuelled. According to a Bloomberg report the UK and the EU are to restart intensive negotiations over a post Brexit deal in London on Thursday. As per officials the aim is to reach a deal by mid-November in order to leave enough time for it to be implemented ahead of UK’s departure on December 31st. EU chief Brexit negotiator Barnier stated that a deal is “within reach” if the UK and the EU work hard to overcome any differences in the coming days. Analysts mention that probably a deal seems to be in the cards ahead of the deadline, albeit we also add that it may be on limited issues and not the full range. Brexit could continue to dominate the headlines in the coming days and be a prime mover for the pound, albeit financial releases could also be of interest.
Cable rallied yesterday, breaking the 1.3015 (S2) and the 1.3085 (S1) resistance lines, now turned to resistance, and continued higher testing the 1.3150 (R1) resistance level. We tend to expect that the correction lower which started during the Asian session, could continue for the pair before stabilising and deciding on the direction of its next leg. Given that the RSI indicator below our four hour chart is still very near the reading of 70, it may imply that the pair is somewhat overbought, yet is still reminding us of the presence of the bulls. Should the bulls actually regain control over the pair, we could see the pair breaking the 1.3150 (R1) which marks the peak of yesterday’s rally and aim for the 1.3210 (R2) level. Should the bears take over and the correction lower turn to a full selling interest of the market, we could see the pair breaking the 1.3085 (S1) support line and aim the 1.3015 (S2) barrier.

USD stabilises as stimulus hopes ease

The negotiations of the US House of Representatives and the White House about the size of a possible stimulus package seemed to puzzle investors yesterday. The weakening of the USD seems to have been halted, at least temporarily in the late American and today’s Asian session, as hopes seemed to ease somewhat. House of Representatives speaker Nancy Pelosi stated that there was still a chance for a deal, despite oppositions from the Republican controlled Senate. Fed’s Brainard underscored the importance of the stimulus package by stating that the biggest risk to the outlook of the economic recovery is the stimulus package. The market’s attention is expected to turn to the debate tomorrow during the Asian session, yet stimulus talks and financial releases could also move the USD.
USD/JPY retreated yesterday breaking the 105.30 (R1) support line now turned to resistance, while started to regain ground later on. The RSI indicator has reached below the reading of 30 and has started to rise, in an indication that a rebound of the pair is taking place. Should the buyers be in charge for the pair’s direction, we could see USD/JPY breaking the 105.30 (R1) resistance line and hover above it, as it did since the 22nd of September. Should the selling interest of the market regain momentum, we could see the pair breaking the 104.10 (S1) support line and aim for the 103.10 (S2) level.

Other economic highlights today and early tomorrow

Today during the European session we note the release of Germany’s GfK consumer sentiment for November, France’s business climate for October, UK’s CBI trends for orders for October and from Turkey CBRT’s interest rate decision for the one week repo rate. In the American session, we get the US weekly initial jobless claims figure, the number of US existing home sales for September and Eurozone’s preliminary consumer confidence for October. During tomorrow’s Asian session, we get Australia’s manufacturing PMI for October, New Zealand’s CPI rates for Q3, UK’s GfK consumer sentiment for October and Japan’s CPI rates for September. As for speakers among a number of speakers we highlight BoE Governor Bailey.