USD Gains on Fed Comments, EUR Weakens

The USD gained against its counterparts on Friday, as the Fed’s Vice Chairman Richard Clarida stated that the Fed may discuss the taper pace in its next meeting in December. The statement made headlines, causing market participants to consider the possibility of a faster tightening of the bank’s monetary policy as well as the possibility of earlier rate hikes to come. On the other hand, the EUR weakened against the USD, restarting its slide, as ECB President Lagarde reiterated that a rate hike by the bank in 2022 is unlikely, which was considered as a dovish signal in the markets. It should be noted that the bank’s ultra-loose monetary policy seems to find opposition from within, as Germany’s BuBa President Weidman seems to oppose it and made public statements arguing his case on Friday, raising the stakes for the bank’s December meeting. It should be noted that the pound retreated against the USD and JPY on Friday, yet gained against the broadly weaker EUR, failing to capitalise on the better-than-expected retail sales growth rate for October. Also the Loonie’s slide against the USD seems to continue as the commodity currency was pushed even lower by weakening oil prices but also the possible effect of a rise in Covid cases in Europe on global trade. Gold’s price also tended to be on the retreat as the USD was on the rise, yet inflation worries could support the precious metal as a safe haven. Oil prices seemed to be under pressure as the market eyes the possibility of a number of countries releasing part of their oil reserves which could relieve the tight supply of the oil market.

值得注意的是，英镑兑美元和日元在周五回落，但兑普遍疲软的欧元上涨，未能利用好于预期的 10 月份零售销售增长率。此外，加元兑美元似乎继续下滑，因为油价疲软以及欧洲 Covid 病例增加对全球贸易的可能影响进一步推低了商品货币。

值得注意的是，美国股市似乎也下跌，因为投资者可能也权衡了这种情况。周五黄金价格也趋于回落，因美元上涨，但通胀上升可能为作为避险资产的贵金属提供一些支持。尽管周五回落，但油价似乎承压，因市场关注多个国家释放部分石油储备的可能性，以缓解石油市场的供应紧张。

尽管零售销售数据强劲，但澳元继续下跌

本周

周二，我们将获得澳大利亚、法国、德国、欧元区、英国和美国 11 月的 Markit PMI 初步数据。周三，我们将获得日本 11 月 Jibun 制造业 PMI 初值、德国 11 月 Ifo 指标和美国 11 月耐用品订单增长率、第三季度 GDP 率的第二次估计、每周首次申请失业救济人数数据、消费 10 月利率是密歇根大学消费者信心指数的最终读数，而美联储将发布其最新会议纪要。周四，我们从澳大利亚获得了第三季度的资本支出增长率，我们还注意到瑞典央行的利率决定。周五，我们注意到日本公布了11月东京的CPI数据，随后我们从瑞士获得了第三季度的GDP数据。

欧元/美元4小时走势图