杰克逊霍尔会议上的所有目光都集中在鲍威尔身上

The USD gained a bit against a number of its counterparts yesterday, yet the overall picture of a sideways movement seems to remain as the marker turns its attention towards Powell’s speech at the Jackson Hole symposium. It should be noted that a number of Fed policymakers in the past weeks had made calls to start tapering the Fed’s QE program rather earlier than later, yet the overall slowdown of the US economic recovery and the risks posed by the Delta variant of Covid 19 may suggest a postponement. Dallas Fed President Kaplan yesterday stated that he worries about inflation and that he would like to see a tapering of the bond purchases in September and a rate hike in the coming year, boosting expectations for a tightening of the Fed’s monetary policy. Earlier on, Kansas Fed President Esther George and St. Louis Fed President James Bullard also downplayed the possible adverse impact of the Delta variant and urged also for an earlier tapering of the bank’s QE program. The remarks from Fed Policymakers prementioned tended to act as a prelude for Powell’s speech and were the ones providing support for the USD despite the US GDP 2nd estimate growth rate for Q2 not accelerating as much as expected. Analysts are mentioned to expect Powell to announce the start of the bank’s tapering plans in the last quarter of the year, providing a signal for a tightening of the bank’s monetary policy ahead of the September meeting yet should the Fed Chairman opt to prolong the ultra-loose monetary policy we may see the USD weakening. US stocks dropped yesterday as markets tended to be cautious ahead of Powell’s speech, given also that the US weekly initial jobless claims figure came out higher than expected implying a slack in the US employment market. At the same time the price of gold rose on today’s Asian session despite the strengthening of the USD, as geopolitical tensions were on the rise also due to the bombing attack on Kabul’s, Afghanistan, airport given that the US are leaving the country by the end of the month. As for financial releases we note the release of the US consumption and the core PCE price index both being for July as well as the final reading of August’s University of Michigan consumer confidence.

早些时候，堪萨斯联邦储备银行行长埃斯特乔治和圣路易斯联邦储备银行总裁詹姆斯布拉德也淡化了 Delta 变量可能带来的不利影响，并敦促该银行更早地缩减量化宽松计划。前面提到的美联储政策制定者的言论往往是鲍威尔讲话的前奏，并为美元提供了支撑，尽管美国第二季度 GDP 的第二次估计增长率没有像预期的那样加速。分析师预计鲍威尔将在今年最后一个季度宣布该银行的缩减计划开始，这为该银行在 9 月会议之前收紧货币政策提供了信号，但如果美联储主席选择延长超- 宽松的货币政策我们可能会看到美元走软。

昨日美股下跌，因市场在鲍威尔讲话前趋于谨慎，同时美国每周首次申请失业救济人数高于预期，暗示美国就业市场疲软。与此同时，尽管美元走强，但今天亚洲时段黄金价格上涨，因为地缘政治紧张局势也在上升，这也是由于阿富汗喀布尔机场的爆炸袭击，因为美国将在本月底离开该国。至于金融数据发布，我们注意到美国消费和核心 PCE 价格指数的发布都是针对 7 月份的，以及 8 月份密歇根大学消费者信心指数的最终读数。

美国：7 月消费数据，调查：0.3% mom，前期：1.0% mom，12:30（格林威治标准时间），美元可能走弱。

美国：7 月核心 PCE 价格指数数据，调查：0.3% mom，前期：0.4% mom，12:30（格林威治标准时间），可能会削弱美元。

加拿大：7 月生产者价格数据，调查：0.1% mom，前期：0.0% mom，12:30 (格林威治标准时间)，可能支持加元。

美国：密歇根大学 8 月消费者信心指数（最终）数据，调查：70.7，前期：70.2，14:00（格林威治标准时间），可能支持美元。

美国：贝克休斯石油钻井平台数量（每周）数据，调查：不适用，前期：405，17:00（格林威治标准时间），任何读数>405 都可能支撑油价。

美元指数4小时走势图