USD weakens on vaccine hopes

The USD weakened against some of its major counterparts, as vaccine hopes tended to provide safe haven outflows for the greenback. More or less we begin the week with a familiar pattern as the USD tends to show a broader weakness and a more risk on appetite seems to be present, albeit the increasing cases of covid 19 tend to brake USD’s fall somewhat, continuing Thursday’s mood. Also given that US lawmakers seem to fail to provide a fiscal stimulus, which the US economy requires, analysts tend to expect the Fed to step in probably with more bond buying in its next meeting. For the coming week, Fed Chair Powell’s testimony before Congress on Tuesday and Wednesday tends to draw attention, while traders are expected to keep an eye out for the US employment data due out near the end of the week.
EUR/USD rose on Friday and during today’s Asian session seems to have broken the 1.1965 (S1) resistance line, now turned to support. We tend maintain a bias for the pairs bullish motion, as long as it remains above the upward trendline incepted since the 26th of the month. Should the bulls take over, we could see it aiming if not breaking the 1.2010 (R1) resistance line. Should the bears be in charge of EUR/USD’s direction, we could see it breaking the 1.1965 (S1) support line and aim for the 1.1910 (S2) level.

RBA to remain on hold

Tomorrow during the Asian session, we get RBA’s interest rate decision, and the bank is widely expected to remain on hold at 0.10%. Currently AUD OIS imply a probability of 97.49% for such a scenario to materialize and given the small rate cut in November, we expect the bank to maintain a wait and see position. Also, after the expansion of the bank’s government bond buying program by A$100 bln, we expect little if any action for the bank’s QE program. Should the rate remain unchanged as forecasted we could see the market’s attention turning to Governor Lowe’s accompanying statement and given the current situation of the Australian economy, we could see a dovish tone being adopted. Overall, we tend to see the risks related to the release as tilted to the bearish side for AUD, given also the bank’s preference for a weaker Aussie.
AUD/USD kept rising on Friday, aiming for the 0.7410 (R1) resistance line. For our bias in favour of a sideways movement we would require the pair’s price action to break the 0.7410 and some consecutive higher peaks and troughs to appear. Should the pair find fresh buying orders along its path, we could see breaking the 0.7410 (R1) line and aim for the 0.7480 (R2) level. If a selling interest is displayed, we could see the pair aiming if not breaking the 0.7300 (S1) support line.

Other economic highlights today and early tomorrow

Today in the European session, we highlight the release of Turkey’s GDP rate for Q3, Switzerland’s KOF indicator and later on Germany’s preliminary HICP rate for November. In the American session we get Canada’s producer prices for October. During tomorrow’s Asian session, besides RBA’s interest rate decision we highlight the release of Japan’s manufacturing PMI for November, Australia’s building approvals for October, and the Caixin manufacturing PMI. As for speakers please note that ECB’s president Christine Lagarde is scheduled to speak in the European session today.

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On Tuesday, we get Eurozone’s preliminary HICP rate for November, Canada’s GDP rate for Q3, and the US ISM manufacturing PMI for November. On Wednesday, we highlight Australia’s GDP rate for Q3. On Thursday Australia’s trade balance and from the US the weekly initial jobless claims figure and the ISM non-manufacturing PMI for November. On Friday, we get Australia’s retail sales as well as the US employment report for November and Canadas’ employment data for the same month.