USD continues to retreat amid slow trading

The USD was on the retreat during Monday’s Asian session as the light trading near year end seems to be pushed towards a more risk oriented trade fuelled by hopes about the US-Sino trade deal. Analysts tend to note that the greenback may also have suffered safe-haven outflows due to the recent market sentiment. On the flip side commodity currencies such as the Kiwi and the Aussie tend to get more support as they may receive interest from both higher commodity prices and the improving US-Sino relationships. Also, the recent weakness of the USD may have underscored the recent positive financial data of the EUR area supporting the single currency according to analysts, while the pound found also some support as EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen stated that the EU may need to extend the deadline for talks about a new trade relationship with Britain.

EUR/USD continued to rise on Friday, breaking the 1.1170 (S1) resistance line, now turned to support. We maintain a bullish bias for the pair as the upward movement seems to be sustainable. We should note though, that the RSI indicator in the 4 hour chart has broken the reading of 70 and could be implying that the pair’s long position maybe overcrowded. Should the pair come under the selling interest of the market, we could see it breaking the 1.1170 (S1) support line and aim for the 1.1105 (S2) support level. Should on the other hand the pair find fresh buying orders along its path, we could see it breaking the 1.1230 (R1) resistance line and aim for the 1.1285 (R2) resistance level.

…while gold remains at 2 month highs…

Gold remained at Friday’s two month highs, actually inching a bit higher during today’s Asian session. Analysts tend to note that the recent weakness of the USD may have fuelled gold’s prices to reach those levels. Also the recent US air strikes over the weekend against Iraq and Syria, may have provided some support for the precious metal’s prices as some market uncertainty may have been stirred. Never the less, fundamentally there seems to be little to keep gold at high levels and one should note the current slight paradox of having simultaneously, stock-markets and gold prices at high levels. Should the USD slip further, or market uncertainty rising we could see gold’s prices rising even further and vice versa. Gold prices remained supported during today’s Asian session, aiming the 1517 (R1) resistance line. We could see the buying momentum continue, yet once again the RSI indicator in the 4-hour chart seems to imply a possibly overcrowded long position, as it remains above the reading of 70, yet seems to be easing somewhat. Should the bulls maintain control over the metal’s prices, we could see it breaking the 1517 (R1) resistance line and aim for the 1532 (R2) resistance level. Should the bears take over, we could see gold’s prices aiming if not breaking the 1500 (S1) support line, heading south.

Other economic highlights today and early tomorrow

In today’s European morning we get Germany’s retail sales growth rate for November and Switzerland’s KOF leading indicators for December, while in the American session, we get the US Pending home sales growth rate for November. As for tomorrow’s Asian session, we get from China the NBS Manufacturing PMI for December.

本周

On Tuesday, from the US we get the Consumer Confidence for December. On Wednesday and on Thursday, no major financial releases are expected. On Friday, we get China’s Caixin Mfg PMI for December, France’s and Germany’s preliminary HICP rates for December, while from the US we get the ISM Manufacturing PMI for December.

EUR/USD 4 Hour