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US stockmarkets tended to remain rather stable yesterday, as the main indices showed little change after Fed policymakers reassured the markets about the bank’s dovish intentions. It should be noted that Fed board Governor Brainard, stated that more progress is still ahead and the economy is still far from the bank’s goals while at the same time inflation has accelerated more than the bank’s expectations yet it is expected to fade back to 2% or less. Brainard’s statements acted as a calming pill for the markets as it practically downplayed the higher than expected acceleration of inflationary pressures and may also have an effect on the market’s reaction to the release of the US employment report for May on Friday. It should be noted that the ISM Mfg PMI for May came higher than expected yesterday boosting confidence as it implies that economic activity in the US economy expanded faster than expected in May, yet today fundamentals could take the lead, given the lack of high impact US data releases.
Nasdaq weakened yesterday, albeit if seen at a daily level tended to maintain a rather tight range bound motion, just below the 13745 (R1) resistance line. We keep our bias for a sideways movement for now, given also the price action’s direction for the past five sessions. Please note that the RSI indicator below our 4-hour chart is near the reading of 50 and may be implying a rather indecisive market for now. Should the index find fresh buying orders along its path, we may see it breaking the 13748 (R1) resistance line and aim for the 14080 (R2) level. Should a selling interest be displayed by the market, we may see Nasdaq aiming if not breaking the 13400 (S1) support line.
AUD continues to strengthen
The Aussie continued to strengthen, despite RBA’s dovish stance yesterday, as the bank remained on hold at 0.10%, and reiterated in Governor Lowe’s statement that inflation remains low in underlying terms and below the bank’s targets. On a more positive note we highlight the fact that Australia’s GDP rate accelerated more than expected for Q1, providing also some confidence among Aussie traders for the country’s economic outlook. On a fundamental level, we tend to maintain our worries for the path of the pandemic, given that Victoria has extended Melbourne’s COVID 19 lockdown for a second week, and given that the possibility of further tension in the US-Sino relationships is still present. Today, we note Aussie traders turning their attention to RBA policymaker’s statements in the European session, while tomorrow’s financial releases could also influence AUD’s direction.
AUD/USD edged higher yesterday aiming for the 0.7780 (R1) resistance line. We tend to maintain a bullish outlook for the pair as long as AUD/USD’s price action remains above the upward trendline incepted since the 31st of May. Should the bulls maintain control over the pair’s direction, we may see AUD/USD breaking the 0.7780 (R1) resistance line and aim for the 0.7850 (R2) resistance level. Should the bears take over, we may see the pair breaking the prementioned upward trendline, the 0.7725 (S1) support line and aim for the 0.7665 (S2) support level.
Today during the European session we get from Germany the retail sales growth rate for April, Norway’s GDP rate for Q1, and from the Eurozone the producer prices for April. On the monetary front, during the European session RBA’s Debelle and Bullock speak. In the American session we note Canada’s building permits and later we get the US API weekly crude oil inventories figure. Please note that Philadelphia Fed President Harker, Chicago Fed President Evans, ECB President Lagarde, Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari, Atlanta Fed President Bostic and Dallas Fed President Kaplan are scheduled to speak. During the Asian session we get Australia’s final retail sales growth rate for April and trade balance for April and China’s Caixin Services PMI for May.
纳斯达克4小时走势图
Support: 13400 (S1), 12960 (S2),12695 (S3)
Resistance: 13745 (R1), 14080 (R2), 14320 (R3)
澳元/美元4小时走势图
Support: 0.7725 (S1), 0.7665 (S2), 0.7595 (S3)
Resistance: 0.7780 (R1), 0.7850 (R2), 0.7890 (R3)
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