{"id":77593,"date":"2024-02-27T14:44:07","date_gmt":"2024-02-27T12:44:07","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ironfx-com-php8.wp-dev.int.theitops.net\/?p=77593"},"modified":"2025-12-10T16:03:03","modified_gmt":"2025-12-10T14:03:03","slug":"golds-ascent-in-the-balance","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.ironfxcn.com\/vi\/golds-ascent-in-the-balance\/","title":{"rendered":"Gold\u2019s ascent in the balance"},"content":{"rendered":"

Gold\u2019s price seems to be supported since our last report<\/a>. The market\u2019s expectations for the Fed\u2019s intentions, recent financial data releases and tensions in the international scene seem to have influenced the path of Gold\u2019s price in the past few days. Today we are to discuss the fundamental challenges laid ahead for the precious metal, while we will be concluding this report with a technical analysis of gold\u2019s daily chart.  <\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Fed\u2019s intentions<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Gold market participants continue to keep a close eye on the Fed\u2019s intentions. It should be noted that the market\u2019s expectations about the bank continue to shift, aligning with the Fed\u2019s narrative of fewer rate cuts and currently Fed Fund Futures imply that the market expects the bank to cut rates three times next year, starting from June onwards. On a fundamental level, we note the release of the Fed\u2019s January meeting minutes. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

The bank in its minutes displayed a hesitation to proceed with rate cuts, contradicting the market sentiment and temporarily halting gold\u2019s rise on Wednesday. It\u2019s characteristic that Fed Board Governor Waller at the end of last week noticed that he would require more evidence that inflation is easing before cutting interest rates. Such comments tend to highlight the hawkish predisposition of the Fed and may weigh on gold\u2019s price.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

USD\u2019s path, US yields and gold<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

We note that the greenback\u2019s bearish tendencies over the past few days may have allowed for gold\u2019s price to ascend higher on a fundamental level as well given the perceived negative correlation of the two trading instruments. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Should the bearish tendency of the USD be maintained we may see gold\u2019s price rising further. Similarly, the relative stabilisation of US yields over the past week may also have allowed gold\u2019s price to rise, as the market\u2019s attention may have shifted from US bonds polishing the shiny metal\u2019s appeal further. We expect that should US yields start falling, we may see gold\u2019s price gaining and vice versa.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Highlights coming up<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

In the coming week, we note that there are a number of financial data releases stemming from the US, yet we tend to focus on two. First would be the release of the revised US GDP rate for Q4 on Wednesday. A possible upward revision of the US GDP rate for the last quarter of 2023, could enhance the narrative of the Fed for a possible soft landing of the US economy and may weigh on gold\u2019s price. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Furthermore we also note the release of the Fed\u2019s favorite inflation measure, namely the Core PCE price index for January on Thursday. Should the rates slow down less than expected as did the headline CPI rate for the same month, or even should the rates fail to slow down we may see the release weakening gold\u2019s price as the release may add pressure on the Fed to keep rates high for longer.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Gold: Technical Analysis<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

XAUUSD Daily Chart<\/em><\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n
\"XAUUSD<\/figure>\n\n\n\n