{"id":53289,"date":"2023-01-19T15:48:15","date_gmt":"2023-01-19T13:48:15","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ironfx-com.wp-dev.int.theitops.net\/?p=53289"},"modified":"2025-10-17T12:27:36","modified_gmt":"2025-10-17T09:27:36","slug":"weak-us-data-weighs-on-wti","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.ironfxcn.com\/vi\/weak-us-data-weighs-on-wti\/","title":{"rendered":"Weak US data weighs on WTI"},"content":{"rendered":"

WTI<\/strong><\/a> saw its winning streak<\/strong> snap<\/strong> yesterday, after disappointing data<\/strong> stemming from the US rekindled worries for an impending recession<\/strong>. On the other hand, persistent optimism<\/strong> for increased consumption levels from China<\/strong> seemed to provide a floor under crude prices<\/strong>, despite surging covid cases and grim growth outlooks. Another large, unexpected buildup<\/strong> in crude inventories may have put some pressure on WTI and today energy traders await for an update from EIA stocks<\/strong>. In this report we aim to shed light on the catalysts driving WTI\u2019s price, assess its future outlook and conclude with a technical analysis.<\/p>\n

Recession worries outweighed China\u2019s reopening optimism<\/strong><\/h2>\n

Crude oil pared early gains<\/strong> during yesterday\u2019s session after weak economic data in regards to consumer<\/strong> spending<\/strong> v\u00e0 industrial<\/strong> production<\/strong> but also due to repeated hawkish remarks by Fed policy makers<\/strong>. Even though retail sales<\/strong> for the month of December contracted more than expected<\/strong>, proving in a way that the Fed\u2019s tightening efforts<\/strong> are indeed demand destructive<\/strong>, they also increase<\/strong> the probability<\/strong> of US entering<\/strong> a recessionary period<\/strong>. Furthermore, also worrying was the further deterioration<\/strong> of the industrial<\/strong> production<\/strong> rate for the month of December, reporting its second month in a row in the negatives and simultaneously the largest drop since September 2021, practically intensified fears<\/strong> of a slowdown<\/strong> in the world\u2019s largest economy<\/strong>. Adding more salt to injury, were the hawkish<\/strong> comments of St. Louis Fed President<\/strong> Bullard<\/strong>, who continues to reiterate<\/strong> the need for more rate increases<\/strong>, stressed the need for raising the terminal rate<\/strong> north of 5%<\/strong> in order to bring inflation down, closer to the central banks\u2019<\/strong> 2% target<\/strong>. He later added \u201cwe\u2019re almost into a zone that we could call restrictive<\/strong> – we\u2019re not quite there yet\u201d and that the bank should not stall before getting to the end zone. Cleveland Fed President Mester\u2019s speech shared similar characteristics, leaning towards the hawkish<\/strong> side, but refrained from disclosing the magnitude of further hikes. Overall, the intensification of worries<\/strong> for a possible recession<\/strong> and stark comments for more aggressive monetary policy tightening<\/strong> kept energy bulls at bay, pushing them to reconsider their short-term outlooks. The FOMC<\/strong> policymakers<\/strong> will convene on the 1st<\/sup> of February and currently the Feds Fund Futures<\/strong> showcases a 92% probability for a 25-basis points<\/strong> rate hike scenario to materialize.<\/p>\n

Crude oil inventory stocks keep piling up<\/strong><\/h2>\n

Yesterday the API crude oil inventories<\/strong> marked the third consecutive week of large buildups<\/strong>, as the agency reported another unexpected pile up<\/strong> of 7.6M barrels, exceeding expectations. The EIA weekly<\/strong> crude oil inventories<\/strong> report is pending, and it is expected to hit the market later today. According to estimates the figure is estimated to report a drawdown of -0.5M barrels, yet analysts caution that the result may present an upside surprise<\/strong>, mirroring yesterday\u2019s API results. Last week EIA reported its third largest buildup of crude stocks ever<\/strong>, yet we noted that the effect of the report was dampened by the overwhelmingly optimistic outlooks<\/strong> for China\u2019s reopening<\/strong>, which fueled further WTI\u2019s<\/strong> ascend last week. Should the data indicate another large build up in crude oil<\/strong> inventories later today, we may see WTI relent some ground and fall lower.<\/strong><\/p>\n

Ph\u00e2n t\u00edch k\u1ef9 thu\u1eadt<\/u><\/strong><\/h2>\n

WTI Cash H4<\/strong><\/h3>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

Looking at WTICash<\/strong> 4-hour chart we observe oil prices unable to continue<\/strong> their ascend<\/strong> higher<\/strong>, topping near the 82.60 (R2) level, break below the ascending trendline<\/strong> initiated on the 11th<\/sup> of January and then retracing to lower ground<\/strong>. We hold a sideways bias<\/strong> for the commodity<\/strong>, being confined between 80.00 (R1) resistance<\/strong> and 76.60 (S1) support<\/strong> levels<\/strong>. Supporting our case is the RSI indicator<\/strong> below our 4-hour chart that currently registers a value of 47, signaling indecision<\/strong> surrounding WTI<\/strong>. We also note that the price action may find support<\/strong> near the 100 and 200-period Trung b\u00ecnh \u0111\u1ed9ng<\/strong>, which could be interpreted as another signal for temporary<\/strong> consolidation<\/strong> v\u00e0 extension<\/strong> of sideways<\/strong> price<\/strong> movement<\/strong>. Should the bulls<\/strong> take initiative over crude\u2019s direction, we may see the price action rise and break<\/strong> the 80.00 (R1) and move closer to the 82.60 (R2) resistance<\/strong> barrier<\/strong> for a breakout attempt. Should on the hand the bears<\/strong> take over, we may see the price action fall below the 76.60 (S1) support<\/strong> level and move decisively lower towards the 73.50 (S2) support<\/strong> base<\/strong>.<\/p>\n

If you have any general queries or comments relating to this article please send an email directly to our Research team at research_team@ironfx.co<\/a><\/p>\n

Disclaimer:<\/b><\/p>\n

This information is not considered investment advice or an investment recommendation, but instead a marketing communication. IronFX is not responsible for any data or information provided by third parties referenced or hyperlinked, in this communication.<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Earlier this week oil prices rebounded from their lowest levels for the year…<\/p>","protected":false},"author":15,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"_daim_seo_power":"","_daim_enable_ail":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[404,380,403],"class_list":["post-53289","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-uncategorized","tag-oil-and-gas","tag-oil-market","tag-oil-price","blog-category-commodities","entry"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nWeak US data weighs on WTI | Oil Report<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"The most important and recent updates from the Oil-WTI market along with our observations of WTI from a technical analysis perspective.\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"noindex, nofollow\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"vi_VN\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Weak US data weighs on WTI\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"The most important and recent updates from the Oil-WTI market along with our observations of WTI from a technical analysis perspective.\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/www.ironfxcn.com\/vi\/weak-us-data-weighs-on-wti\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"Complete Turnkey Introducing Brokers (IB) Solution at IronFX\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2023-01-19T13:48:15+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:modified_time\" content=\"2025-10-17T09:27:36+00:00\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"IronFX Team\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\\\/\\\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"Article\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.ironfxcn.com\\\/vi\\\/weak-us-data-weighs-on-wti\\\/#article\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.ironfxcn.com\\\/vi\\\/weak-us-data-weighs-on-wti\\\/\"},\"author\":{\"name\":\"IronFX Team\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.smartindonesiafx.id\\\/ar\\\/#\\\/schema\\\/person\\\/6727476356d10030d1564b38f6e699b1\"},\"headline\":\"Weak US data weighs on WTI\",\"datePublished\":\"2023-01-19T13:48:15+00:00\",\"dateModified\":\"2025-10-17T09:27:36+00:00\",\"mainEntityOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.ironfxcn.com\\\/vi\\\/weak-us-data-weighs-on-wti\\\/\"},\"wordCount\":772,\"publisher\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.smartindonesiafx.id\\\/ar\\\/#organization\"},\"keywords\":[\"oil and gas\",\"oil market\",\"oil price\"],\"articleSection\":[\"Uncategorized\"],\"inLanguage\":\"vi\"},{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.ironfxcn.com\\\/vi\\\/weak-us-data-weighs-on-wti\\\/\",\"url\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.ironfxcn.com\\\/vi\\\/weak-us-data-weighs-on-wti\\\/\",\"name\":\"Weak US data weighs on WTI | Oil Report\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.smartindonesiafx.id\\\/ar\\\/#website\"},\"datePublished\":\"2023-01-19T13:48:15+00:00\",\"dateModified\":\"2025-10-17T09:27:36+00:00\",\"description\":\"The most important and recent updates from the Oil-WTI market along with our observations of WTI from a technical analysis perspective.\",\"breadcrumb\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.ironfxcn.com\\\/vi\\\/weak-us-data-weighs-on-wti\\\/#breadcrumb\"},\"inLanguage\":\"vi\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"ReadAction\",\"target\":[\"https:\\\/\\\/www.ironfxcn.com\\\/vi\\\/weak-us-data-weighs-on-wti\\\/\"]}]},{\"@type\":\"BreadcrumbList\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.ironfxcn.com\\\/vi\\\/weak-us-data-weighs-on-wti\\\/#breadcrumb\",\"itemListElement\":[{\"@type\":\"ListItem\",\"position\":1,\"name\":\"Home\",\"item\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.ironfxcn.com\\\/vi\\\/\"},{\"@type\":\"ListItem\",\"position\":2,\"name\":\"Weak US data weighs on WTI\"}]},{\"@type\":\"WebSite\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.smartindonesiafx.id\\\/ar\\\/#website\",\"url\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.smartindonesiafx.id\\\/ar\\\/\",\"name\":\"Complete Turnkey Introducing Brokers (IB) Solution at IronFX\",\"description\":\""Our Introducing Brokers program offers competitive conditions tailored to our partners' needs. 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