{"id":113269,"date":"2025-06-03T15:25:02","date_gmt":"2025-06-03T12:25:02","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ironfx-com.wp-dev.int.theitops.net\/?p=113269"},"modified":"2025-06-03T15:25:04","modified_gmt":"2025-06-03T12:25:04","slug":"gold-outlook-golds-price-to-see-heightened-volatility","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.ironfxcn.com\/vi\/gold-outlook-golds-price-to-see-heightened-volatility\/","title":{"rendered":"Gold Outlook: Gold\u2019s price to see heightened volatility?"},"content":{"rendered":"

Gold\u2019s price has moved higher since our last report<\/a>, with gold\u2019s price currently above $3300 per troy ounce. In today\u2019s report we intend to discuss fundamental issues that may be affecting the precious metal\u2019s price action and conclude the report with a technical analysis of gold\u2019s daily chart.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

President Trump and President Xi Jinping to speak this week?<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

The uncertainty stemming from US President Trump\u2019s intentions seems to be maintained and may be keeping gold\u2019s price supported. We note as an example the recent tariff announcement on Friday of a 50% tariff on steel and aluminum imports. The updated tariff levies are set to go into effect on the 4th of June, with the announcement coming hours after the US accused China of violating an agreement to mutually roll back tariffs and trade restrictions for critical materials. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

The situation highlights how delicate the trade negotiations still are and thus the announcement may have heightened worries about the state of the global economy, which in turn may have aided gold\u2019s price. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, the White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt stated per Reuters on Monday that US President Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping will likely speak this week. Therefore, should the two leaders reach an agreement on tariffs, or the talks are described as \u201cproductive\u201d, it may ease concerns over the global economy and could thus weigh on gold\u2019s price. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, should no progress be made between the two leaders, it may have the opposite effect on gold\u2019s price. Overall, in our view should the talks between the two leaders actually proceed, we would not be surprised to see the US touting them as productive, whilst seeing a more reserved tone from China in terms of how productive the talks may have been.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Financial releases of interest for Gold traders<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Over the coming days there are two financial releases stemming from the US that could affect gold\u2019s price. Specifically, the US Employment data is expected to showcase a loosening labour market based on the current expectations by economists. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

In particular the NFP figure is expected to come in at 130k which would be lower than last month’s figure of 177k, whilst the average earnings rate is also expected to come in at 3.7% which would also be lower than the prior months rate of 3.8%. Lastly, the unemployment rate is expected to remain steady at 4.2%. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Overall, should the employment data come in as expected and showcase a loosening labour market it may weigh on the dollar, whilst potentially aiding gold\u2019s price given their assumed inverse relationship with one another. Whereas should the employment data showcase a resilient labour market, it could potentially aid the dollar whilst weighing on gold\u2019s price.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Central bank Gold buying decreases in April<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

As closure we tend to note the recent report by the World Gold Council which has stated that \u201cGlobal central banks bought a net 12t in April based on reported data, 12% lower than the previous month and below the 12-month average of 28t\u201d. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Moreover, per the same report, central bank net purchases slowed in April for a second month in a row which in turn may imply a reduction in demand for gold from central banks which may be perceived as bearish for gold\u2019s price. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Yet the WGC states that \u201cwe still expect overall buying to continue, given that the economic and geopolitical outlook remains highly uncertain\u201d, a view which we tend to agree with and could thus aid gold\u2019s price in the long run. Nonetheless, the report by the WGC may have bearish implications for gold\u2019s price in the short term.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Gold Technical Analysis<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

XAUUSD 4H Chart<\/strong><\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n
\"EU\/USD<\/figure>\n\n\n\n