{"id":110997,"date":"2025-05-22T15:33:34","date_gmt":"2025-05-22T12:33:34","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ironfx-com.wp-dev.int.theitops.net\/?p=110997"},"modified":"2025-05-22T15:33:35","modified_gmt":"2025-05-22T12:33:35","slug":"oil-outlook-oil-prices-stabilise-yet-bearish-tendencies-may-emerge","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.ironfxcn.com\/vi\/oil-outlook-oil-prices-stabilise-yet-bearish-tendencies-may-emerge\/","title":{"rendered":"Oil Outlook: WTI prices stabilise, yet bearish tendencies may emerge"},"content":{"rendered":"

Since our last report oil prices<\/a> seem to have relatively stabilised. In today\u2019s report we are to discuss some fundamental issues which affect or could affect wti prices and are related to the supply and the demand of the international oil market. We are to compliment the fundamentals with a technical analysis of WTI\u2019s daily chart. \u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Bearish signals in the US oil market intensify<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Having a look at the US oil market we note that the number of active wti rigs in the US, as per Baker Hughes, ticked down to 473 if compared to prior report\u2019s reading of 474. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

The drop was interpreted as a bearish signal as it implies that reduced oil demand may have forced oil producers to shut down an oil rig. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

On Tuesday API reported an increase of\u00a0 US oil inventories, by almost 2.5 million barrels, a figure which is lower than last week\u2019s reading of a 4.287 million barrel increase. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

In any case, the increase of oil inventories as reported by API may have disappointed oil traders, as a reduction of US oil inventories was expected. Similarly, on Wednesday EIA also reported a narrowed increase of US oil inventories of 1.328 million barrels, also surprising the markets. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Overall both API and EIA signalled that wti production levels for another week, have surpassed aggregated oil demand in the US, thus sending bearish signals for oil prices. We should note at this point that analysts tended to blame a modest demand for the commodity as well as increased imports of oil that allowed for the commodity\u2019s inventories to rise in the US market. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Thus should we see further signals of an easing US oil market in the coming week, we may see bearish tendencies for oil prices intensifying in the coming week. On the flip side, any signs of a possible tightening of the US wti market, such as reports of drawdown in US wti inventories by API and EIA could provide some support for oil prices. \u00a0\u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Israel to hit Iranian nuclear facilities?<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

According to CNN, the US has obtained new intelligence which suggests that Israel is preparing to strike Iranian nuclear facilities. It should be noted\u00a0 that the reports are coming in as the US is preparing to strike a possible diplomatic deal with Iran, a scenario which could ease market worries for the supply side of the international wti market and in turn could weigh on oil prices. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

We expect Israel\u2019s actions to depend largely also on the Israeli expectations of how the US-Iranian talks proceed, while also what the reaction of the US could be to such a strike. It\u2019s clear that such a strike would not go down well with US President Trump unless it\u2019s sanctioned by the US. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

On the flip side, Israel may prefer to proceed with a strike before the US gets a deal with Iran in a sort of pre-emptive strike, as a possible US-Iranian deal could allow for the Iranian nuclear program to stay alive, a scenario that Israel tries to end. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Furthermore a possible Israeli strike on Iranian nuclear facilities could pose a substantial escalation in the Middle East, an escalation which possibly would not be unanswered by Iran, thus leading to a negative spiral. Should we see Israel attacking Iranian nuclear sites, we may see wti prices rallying as market worries for the supply side of oil could skyrocket.\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Oil demand and OPEC\u2019s intentions<\/strong> <\/h2>\n\n\n\n

On the positive side, OPEC\u2019s Secretary General Haitham Al Ghais said on Tuesday that he organisation remains generally optimistic about oil demand despite there being some headwinds recently. The difficulties tend to focus around risks for international trade and a possible slow down of the global economy. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

OPEC expects global demand to grow by 1.3 million barrels per day (bpd) for 2025 and in 2026, a rather optimistic scenario. At the same time though such expectations for the demand side of the international wti market may justify also OPEC\u2019s intentions to increase oil production levels,<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Oil Technical Analysis<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

WTI Cash Daily Chart<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n
\"Technical<\/figure>\n\n\n\n