Central Banks continue raising interest rates

The SNB yesterday announced that it would raise interest rates by 50 basis points as was anticipated. The SNB claimed that the UBS takeover of Credit Suisse had averted a potential financial disaster with severe implications for the banking industry on a global level. Reuters quotes SNB’s Chairman Jordan as stating, “The multi-billion Swiss francs rescue package brokered by the SNB, government and regulator on Sunday prevent a systemic crisis.” Implying that the Credit Suisse scenario was also an outlier and that having taken swift and decisive action investors should not fear the risk of contagion spreading across other institutions as such, the 50-basis points hike was justified to combat inflation and as an attempt by the SNB to increase confidence in the Swiss Banking industry. In addition, the BoE also hiked interest rates by 25 basis points following suit with the decisions of the ECB and the FED considering the higher-than-expected CPI rates for February which as we mentioned yesterday unexpectedly accelerated and as such, it was anticipated that the BoE would raise interest rates. The forward guidance provided by the BoE could be perceived as dovish considering the following statement “CPI inflation increased unexpectedly in the latest release, but it remains likely to fall sharply over the rest of the year” which could be perceived as dovish as it could imply that later on in the year the BoE may decide to keep interest rates as they are or even potentially cut depending on the data that is available. However, we should note that the vote to raise interest rates was 7-2, with the two opting to vote for a hold thus indicating that the balance of power remains unchanged within the BoE as this was the case last meeting therefore, we do not see any immediate change in voting habits by BoE members. Furthermore, BoE’s Mann spoke yesterday stating that “We may well be entering a very different regime where we are going to have to work much harder as central banks” hinting that the BoE may not be done raising interest rates just yet. In the US we note the reduction in the Initial Jobless claims figure, slightly improving since last time however we should note that this did not result in any significant market reaction as the change in the figure was minimal. Furthermore, we note that Building permits in the US exceeded expectations coming in at 1.550M implying that the US economy is still growing despite high-interest rates as such this could provide some support for the USD despite New Home sales for February coming in lower than expected it appears that these two figures have countered each other out in the market allowing for the USD to remain relatively stable. However, we should that US Treasury Secretary Yellen yesterday according to Reuters, announced that the “US prepared to take more action to keep bank deposits safe”, thus calming down markets following the two different remarks made by Yellen in her testimony to US Congress and FED Chair Powell during the FOMC meeting.

GBP/USD is currently in a sideways movement after failing to break above resistance at 1.2340 (R1). As such we hold a neutral outlook for the pair as it moves in sideways motion after invalidating the ascending trendline, in addition to the RSI indicator which currently stands near 50. Should the bulls dominate, we may see the pair make a clean break above the 1.2340 (R1) level allowing for a potential test of resistance at 1.2480 (R2). Should the bears take over, we may see a clean break below support at 1.2230 (S1) level and the move closer towards the 1.2150 (S2) support level.

USD/JPY moved lower during yesterday’s trading session validating the downwards trendline and is now currently testing support at 130.10 (S1). As such we hold a bearish outlook as the pair’s RSI indicator is below 30. Should the bears maintain control over the pair, we may see the clean break below the 130.10 (S1) support level and the possible testing of support at 128.90 (S2). For a Bullish outlook we would require seeing the break above the downwards trendline and the break above the 132.75 (R1) level and the possible test of the 134.65 (R2) resistance base.

Other highlights for the day: 

During the European Session we note the French Services PMI and Germanys Manufacturing PMI both for March as well as UK’s Services PMI for March. In the American session, we anticipate the US Durable Goods for February and Canadas Retail sales for January, followed by FED Bullard’s speech the US S&P Manufacturing PMI. BoE’s Pill and ECB’s Lagarde are scheduled to speak today.  

GBP/USD H4 Chart

Support: 1.2230 (S1), 1.2150 (S2), 1.2040 (S3)

Resistance: 1.2340 (R1), 1.2480 (R2), 1.2600 (R3)

USD/JPY H4 Chart

Support: 130.10 (S1), 128.90 (S2), 127.05 (S3)

Resistance: 132.75 (R1), 134.65 (R2), 137.55 (R3)

If you have any general queries or comments relating to this article please send an email directly to our Research team at research_team@ironfx.com

Disclaimer:
This information is not considered as investment advice or an investment recommendation, but instead a marketing communication. IronFX is not responsible for any data or information provided by third parties referenced, or hyperlinked, in this communication.

Share: