FOMC minutes due out today

The FOMC’s May meeting minutes are due out later on today. The minutes may provide valuable insight into the inner deliberations of policymakers and could provide clues as to how to the bank may proceed in their next monetary policy meeting. Overall, should the minutes showcase a willingness by Fed policymakers to cut rates in the near future it may weigh on the dollar, whereas should worries surface in regards to the state of the US economy it may imply that they could remain on hold for some time which may aid the greenback.

The RBNZ’s interest rate occurred earlier on today during the Asian trading session. The bank cut rates by 25 basis points as was widely expected by market participants. However, during the press conference following the banks decision, the RBNZ acting Governor Hawkesby noted that there is a high degree of uncertainty, which may imply that the bank could withhold from cutting rates in the near future. In turn, this may have aided the Kiwi.In the US Equities markets, strong interest is garnering around the release of Nvidia’s earnings report for the first quarter of 2025. According to economists, the company’s EPS figure is expected to decrease slightly from 0.9 to 0.893, whereas revenue is expected to increase to 43.12B from 39.33B in the previous quarter. In the event that the company exceeds the earnings estimates it may initially aid the company’s stock price, yet the main event may be the earnings call and in particular their forward guidance. In our view we wouldn’t be surprised to see some concerns over the ongoing trade war between the US and China, which, despite appearing to have eased, is still a key concern for a company that has significant exposure in China.In Europe, France’s GDP rate on YOY basis for Q1 came in higher than expected which could aid the EUR.

Looking at EUR/USD the pair appears to be moving in a sideways fashion after failing to clear our 1.1420 (R1) resistance line. We opt for a sideways bias for the pair and supporting our case is the RSI indicator below our chart, which currently registers a figure near 50, implying a neutral market sentiment. For our sideways bias to continue we would require the pair to remain confined between the 1.1185 (S1) support level and the 1.1420 (R1) resistance line. On the other hand, for a bullish outlook we would require a clear break above the 1.1420 (R1) resistance line with the next possible target for the bulls being the 1.1685 (R2) resistance level. Lastly, for a bearish outlook we would require a clear break below the 1.1185 (S1) support line, with the next possible target for the bears being the 1.0950 (S2) support level.

XAU/USD appears to be to moving in a sideways fashion, with the commodity’s price appearing to be facing resistance near our 3365 (R1) resistance level. We opt for a sideways bias for the precious metal’s price and supporting our case is the RSI indicator below our chart which currently registers a figure near 50, implying a neutral market sentiment. For our sideways bias to continue, we would require the precious metal’s price to remain confined between the 3240 (S1) support line and the 3365 (R1) resistance level. On the other hand, for a bullish outlook, we would require a clear break above the 3365 (R1) resistance level, with the next possible target for the bulls being the 3500 (R2) resistance line. Lastly, for a bearish outlook we would require a clear break below the 3240 (S1) support level, with the next possible target for the bears being the 3115 (S2) support line.

Other highlights for the day:

Today we note the release of France’s final GDP rates for Q1, Germany’s unemployment rate for May and the release of the API weekly crude oil inventories figure. On a monetary level, we note the speeches by Minneapolis Fed President Kashkari, New York Fed President William’s, the press conference by the Riksbank and the main event of the day which is the release of the FOMC’s May meeting minutes.

EUR/USD Daily Chart

• Support: 1.1185 (S1), 1.0950 (S2), 1.0740 (S3)
• Resistance: 1.1420 (R1), 1.1685 (R2), 1.1885 (R3)

XAU/USD Daily Chart

• Support: 3240 (S1), 3115 (S2), 2980 (S3)
• Resistance: 3365 (R1), 3500 (R2), 3645 (R3)

If you have any general queries or comments relating to this article please send an email directly to our Research team at research_team@ironfx.com

Disclaimer:
This information is not considered as investment advice or an investment recommendation, but instead a marketing communication. IronFX is not responsible for any data or information provided by third parties referenced, or hyperlinked, in this communication.

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