{"id":96989,"date":"2025-01-07T15:45:58","date_gmt":"2025-01-07T13:45:58","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ironfx-com-php8.wp-dev.int.theitops.net\/?p=96989"},"modified":"2025-01-07T15:45:59","modified_gmt":"2025-01-07T13:45:59","slug":"gold-outlook-decembers-us-employment-report-the-next-big-test-for-gold","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.ironfxcn.com\/ru\/gold-outlook-decembers-us-employment-report-the-next-big-test-for-gold\/","title":{"rendered":"Gold Outlook: December\u2019s US employment report the next big test for gold"},"content":{"rendered":"

Since our last report<\/a>, gold\u2019s price opened the year in a relatively stable manner with no major fluctuations in the holiday period. In today\u2019s report, we intend to have a look at the Fed\u2019s stance and how it may affect gold\u2019s price , upcoming financial releases that my prove to be market movers for the precious metal\u2019s price and lastly a look at geopolitics. For a rounder view, we conclude the report with a technical analysis of gold\u2019s daily chart.\u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Fed\u2019s stance<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

The Fed seems\u00a0 to continue to hesitate in cutting rates further. Currently Fed Fund futures imply that he market expects the bank to proceed with a rate cut in the May meeting and remain on hold after that until the end of the year, with a December 2025 being currently highly doubtfull. Yet, in its latest dot plot the bank signalled two rate cuts within the year. We also note the latest comment by Fed Board Governor Lisa Cook which may have been a bit more dovish. Hence should the Fed start sounding more dovish than what the market expects, we may gold prices getting some support.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

December\u2019s US employment report<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

On Friday we highlight the release of December\u2019s employment report as the next big test for gold prices. The Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) figure is expected to\u00a0 drop to 154k after November\u2019s stellar 227k, the unemployment rate to remain unchanged at 4.2% and the average earnings growth rate also to remain unchanged at 4.9% yy. Should the rates and figures come in as expected, we may see the drop of the NFP figure disappointing traders somewhat and thus allow for a more dovish stance on behalf of the Fed, thus weighing on gold\u2019s price somewhat, albeit most would have been priced in allready. Yet the actual release is well known to take the markets by surprise and should it show a tighter than expected employment market for the past month we may see it weighing on gold\u2019s price and vice versa.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Tensions in Geopolitics and PBoC\u2019s gold buying spree  <\/strong><\/u><\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Since our last report there were substantial developments on a geopolitical level, with the situation in the Middle East still being unresolved and despite market worries easing somewhat about the issue, it\u2019s still simmering under the surface. Also the war in Ukraine is ongoing with the Ukrainians making a new attack. In both cases the incoming Trump presidency is expected to be a catalyst, which may intensify uncertainty and thus act a supportive role for gold\u2019s price. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Also we note that despite gold\u2019s price trading just below record high levels, China\u2019s central bank expanded its gold reserves for a second month in December, signaling renewed appetite after temporarily pausing purchases last year as prices soared, as per Bloomberg. Should we see PBoC continuing to be in a net buying position in January, it could also provide a boost to gold\u2019s price.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Gold Technical Analysis<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

XAUUSD 4H Chart<\/strong><\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n
\"XAU\/USD<\/figure>\n\n\n\n