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The USD largely was able to maintain its Thursday’s gains on Friday, despite slipping slightly against some of its counterparts, while market worries seem to remain high. The chances of Biden being elected seem to remain high, yet nothing should be taken for granted, with the markets contemplating what a Biden win could actually mean, given the expectations for a large stimulus. Market expectations are running high regarding the size of a stimulus package especially should the Democrats get control over the Senate as well, while a smaller stimulus is expected if the Senate remains in Republican hands. It should be noted that the speaker of the House of Representatives Pelosi set a deadline on Tuesday, for more progress with the White House on negotiations for the stimulus package. Given the absence of high impact financial releases, we could see the USD being influenced more by fundamentals today and should market uncertainty remain high, we could see the USD enjoying further safe haven inflows and vice versa.
The USD index maintained a sideways motion between the 93.95 (R1) and the 93.40 (S1) levels. As a base scenario we expect the index to maintain a sideways motion. Fundamentals like the fiscal stimulus expectations and the US elections could alter the index’s direction. If a selling interest is displayed by the market for the USD, we could see the index breaking the 93.40 (S1) line and aim for 92.80 (S2) level. If buyers are in charge of the index’s direction, it could break the 93.95 (R1) line and aim for the 94.55 (R2) level.
Pound gains on slight Brexit optimism
The pound stabilized and even gained a bit against the USD, EUR and JPY on Friday and during today’s Asian session as the markets tended to brush off UK PM Johnson’s comment to get ready for a hard Brexit. Analysts tended to underscore the difference between getting ready for a possible no deal scenario and an actual no deal, leaning more on the optimistic side. Negotiations are to restart in London and EU’s von der Leyen stated that the EU team is aiming to intensify the talks. The situation with the pandemic remains dire on both sides of the Channel weighing on their respective currencies. We expect that should more positive headlines about the prospects of a Brexit deal emerge, the pound could gain substantially and vice versa.
GBP/USD on Friday regained some of the losses made on Thursday, yet remained within the frame formed by the 1.2945 (R1) and the 1.2885 (S1) boundaries. The sideways motion is expected to continue for the time being, yet fundamentals on both sides of the pair, with special emphasis on Brexit, could alter cable’s direction. Should the bulls take over, we could see GBP/USD breaking the 1.2945 (R1) and aiming if not breaking also the 1.3015 (R2) resistance level, in a move similar to the one on the 14th of October. Should the bears take over, the pair could break the 1.2885 (S1) line and aim if not break the 1.2800 (S2) level.
Other economic highlights today and early tomorrow
On a rather slow Monday, we get Canada’s wholesale trade for August. As for speakers please note that NY Fed President Williams, BoE Deputy Governor Broadbent and BoE Deputy Governor Cunliffe are scheduled to speak, while during tomorrow’s Asian session RBA releases its meeting minutes.
As for the rest of the week
On a rather slow Monday, we get Canada’s wholesale trade for August. As for speakers please note that NY Fed President Williams, BoE Deputy Governor Broadbent and BoE Deputy Governor Cunliffe are scheduled to speak, while during tomorrow’s Asian session RBA releases its meeting minutes.
USD Index 4 Hour Chart
Support: 93.40 (S1), 92.80 (S2), 92.23 (S3)
Resistance: 93.95 (R1), 94.55 (R2), 95.10 (R3)
GBP/USD H4 Hour Chart
Support: 1.2885 (S1), 1.2800 (S2), 1.2725 (S3)
Resistance: 1.2945 (R1), 1.3015 (R2), 1.3085 (R3)
Disclaimer:
This information is not considered as investment advice or an investment recommendation, but instead a marketing communication. IronFX is not responsible for any data or information provided by third parties referenced, or hyperlinked, in this communication.
