USD’s slide seems to slowdown

The USD continued to be on the retreat yesterday as optimism about a possible COVID 19 vaccine tended to continue to provide safe haven outflows for USD. It should be noted though that the downbeat data released yesterday did not pass unnoticed and especially the second consecutive rise of the weekly initial jobless claims figure tended to create worries among investors about the US employment market. Some economists said more job losses are likely, as many US states reinforce restrictions on businesses to curb a spread of coronavirus infections. At the same time, the soft US data released yesterday may have prompted some hesitation in US stock-markets and its characteristic that Dow Jones retreated after reaching record highs, while other indexes remained more or less at familiar levels. Given the Thanksgiving holiday some thin trading may occur, yet we expect that should market sentiment remain optimistic and on a risk-on mood, the USD may continue to lose ground.
AUD/USD rose slightly yesterday and stabilised during today’s Asian session, remaining between the 0.7410 (R1) resistance line and the 0.7300 (S1) support line. After the recent stabilisation of the pair we may see AUD/USD maintaining a sideways motion, and despite a bullish triangle being formed by the pair’s recent price action, the pair could remain under the spell of the upward trendline incepted since Monday. Should the pair find fresh buying orders along its path, we could see it breaking the 0.7410 (R1) line which marks the pair’s highs since the 1st of September and start aiming for the 0.7480 (R2) hurdle. If a selling interest is displayed, we could see it breaking the 0.7300 (S1) line and aim for the 0.7200 (S2) level.

CAD remains near a 2-week high

The Loonie remained near a 2-week high against the USD yesterday, as oil prices tended to be on the rise yet USD/CAD presented little change. The price of oil, one of Canada’s major exports, rose to the highest level in more than eight months, reaching $46 per barrel. At the same time it should be noted that a surprise drawdown of oil inventories as reported by the EIA yesterday for the past week also tended to allow oil prices to continue to rally. On the other hand though, we remain worried by the increased COVID 19 cases in Canada which despite retreating from Monday’s record highs are still at very high levels. We expect that CAD traders could maintain a close view on oil prices and should also the risk-on mood of the market persist, we could see the CAD continuing to rise as a commodity currency.
USD/CAD remained relatively unchanged yesterday, between the 1.2955 (S1) line and the 1.3035 (R1) resistance level. We expect our bearish bias to be put to the test today, as the pair’s price action seems about to reach the downward trendline incepted since the 23rd of November. Should the pair be able to clearly beak the prementioned downward trendline we would switch our bearish outlook in favour of bias for a sideways movement initially. Should the bears actually maintain control over the pair though, we could see the pair breaking the 1.2955 (S1) support line and aim for the 1.2885 (S2) level. Should the bulls take over, we could see the pair breaking the 1.3035 (R1) resistance line and aim for the 1.3095 (R2) level.

Other economic highlights today and early tomorrow

It’s expected to be a rather slow Thursday, given the US holiday, yet in the European session, we note the release of Germany’s forward looking GfK consumer sentiment for December as well as Riksbank’s interest rate decision from Sweden. The bank is widely expected to remain on hold at 0.0% and the market seems to have fully priced in such a scenario. Despite some analysts expecting an increase of the bank’s QE program, we expected the bank to maintain a cautious wait and see position with no change. Also note that during tomorrow’s Asian session, we get from Japan, Tokyo’s inflation measures for November. As for speakers ECB’s De Galhau, Lane and Schnabel are scheduled to speak today.

AUD/USD H4 Chart

Support: 0.7300 (S1), 0.7200 (S2), 0.7100 (S3)

Resistance: 0.7410 (R1), 0.7480 (R2), 0.7560 (R3)

USD/CAD H4 Chart

Support: 1.2955 (S1), 1.2885 (S2), 1.2800 (S3)

Resistance: 1.3035 (R1), 1.3095 (R2), 1.3170 (R3)

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