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The USD recovered some of Tuesday’s losses against its counterparts yet is still pretty much lower than where the week began. Attention today is shifting to economic activity data from the US and namely the Philly Fed Business index for November and the US industrial output growth rate for October. Should the data actually show that the economic activity is picking up, we may see the USD getting some support. Yet attention is also expected to shift toward the wide number of Fed policymakers which scheduled to speak today. The question is whether Fed policymakers will be lowering any hawkish tones after the slowdown of the CPI rates for October was revealed on Tuesday, or whether the narrative that another rate hike is possible, as implied by Fed Chairman Powell last week, will be maintained. In the latter scenario, we may see once again support being built up for the greenback and vice versa. For the time being, we note that the positive market sentiment is still present despite some hesitation in US equities markets yesterday and attention today is expected to be given to the earnings releases today, especially for Ali Baba (#BABA) and Walmart (#WMT). On a deeper fundamental level, we note the progress reported on the possible improvement of the US-Sino relationships, after US President Biden met with his Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping, yesterday.
USD/JPY edged higher after bouncing on the 150.10 (S1) support line. Despite the presence of an upward trendline supporting USD/JPY since the 10a. of August, we see some difficulty for the bulls to advance higher given that the last two peaks of the pair in our chart were at around the same level, namely the 151.70 (R1) line. Hence we tend to maintain a bias for a sideways motion, a scenario that is also supported by the RSI indicator which runs along the reading of 50, implying a rather indecisive market. For a bullish outlook, we would require the pair to clearly break the 151.70 (R1) line and aim for the 153.35 (R2) level. Should the bears take over, we may see the pair breaking the prementioned upward trendline in a first signal that the upward motion has been interrupted, break also the 150.10 (S1) line and aim for the 148.25 (S2) base.
On the commodities front, oil prices continued to weaken. The increase in US oil inventories, reported by both the EIA yesterday and API the day before, tended to underscore the slack in the US oil market as demand was not able to catch up with production levels. In addition to that the market worries for the demand side of the international oil market tend to persist, especially about China, fuelling bearish tendencies of oil prices further. The fact that despite some improvement the Chinese manufacturing sector continues to struggle, the fresh signs faced by China’s construction sector and the easing of throughput of Chinese refineries, tended to renew the worries for Chinese oil demand. Overall given that no more tightening of the supply side is on the horizon and demand worries seem to persist we may see oil prices continuing to edge lower.
WTI continued to weaken aiming for the 75.10 (S1) support line. For the time being, we tend to maintain our bias for a sideways motion in the channel formed by the 79.65 (R1) resistance line and the 75.10 (S1) support level, yet we also note the bearish tendencies of the commodity’s price action. It’s characteristic that the RSI indicator retreated below the reading of 50 and is nearing the reading of 30, implying a build-up of the bearish sentiment in the market. Yet for a bearish outlook, we would require the commodity’s price to break the 75.10 (S1) support line and aim for the reading of 70.00 (S2) support barrier. Should the bulls take over, we may see WTI’s price breaking the 79.65 (R1) resistance line and aim for the 83.00 (R2) resistance hurdle.
Other highlights for the day:
Today we note the release of Canada’s House starts for October and from the US the weekly initial jobless claims. On the monetary front, we note that ECB President Christine Lagarde, ECB board member Enria, ECB Vice President De Guindos, NY Fed President Williams, Fed Board Governor Waller, Fed Vice Chair Barr, BoE Deputy Governor Ramsden, Fed Governor Cook and Cleveland Fed President Mester speak.
USD/JPY 4 Hour Chart
Support: 150.10 (S1), 148.25 (S2), 147.25 (S3)
Resistance: 151.70 (R1), 153.35 (R2), 154.70 (R3)
WTI 4 Hour Chart
Support: 75.10 (S1), 70.00 (S2), 66.85 (S3)
Resistance: 79.65 (R1), 83.00 (R2), 85.55 (R3)
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