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The greenback remained near a 1-week low against a number of its counterparts yesterday with little volatility as market worries for the path of the pandemic and its possible adverse effect on the US economic rebound tended to ease, causing safe haven outflows for the USD. However, the outlook for the US economic recovery remains shrouded given the Delta variant of the pandemic and thus expectations for Fed Chairman Powell announcing a tapering of the Fed’s QE program at the Jackson Hole summit are fading away, weakening USD further. On the other hand, for the same reasons US stockmarkets remained supported with Nasdaq and S&P 500 reaching new record highs. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq closed at record highs yesterday, extending Monday’s gains after the FDA provided full approval for Pfizer’s COVID-19 vaccine, raising expectations that further vaccinations could accelerate the economic recovery in the US and globally. For the time being the US is still recovering from the 4th wave of the pandemic yet there are signs of slowing economic activity both on the production as well as the consuming side, while today we expect attention to turn to the release of the US durable goods orders for July.
Nasdaq was on the rise yesterday yet seems to have stabilised just above the 15300 (S1) support line. We tend to switch our bullish outlook for the index in favor of a bias for a sideways movement, given that Nasdaq’s price action seems about to break the upward trendline characterizing its movement. Should the bulls regain control over the index’s direction and given that the index is already at record highs, we note as possible next stops the 15500 (R1) level and even higher the 15700 (R2) resistance line. Should the bears take over, we may see the index breaking the 15300 (S1) support line and aim for the 15150 (S2) level.
Aussie supported yet pandemic weighs
The AUD was on the rise yesterday against the USD, as a rebound in commodity prices and a positive market sentiment were present, yet lockdown measures in Australia seemed to weigh and prevented the commodity currency from further advances during today’s Asian session. A rise in Iron Ore prices was reported yesterday which tended to support the Aussie, as Australia is a major iron ore exporter, yet the industrial metal’s prices are still a long way from its’ peaks near mid-July. Back home the news about the path of the pandemic are not so good, given that the most populous state, New South Wales, reported another record high number of Covid cases and lockdowns seem to have no end in major cities such as Sydney, Melbourne or Canberra. Besides fundamentals we expect Aussie traders to focus also on the release of the Capital expenditure growth rate for Q2, due out during tomorrow’s Asian session.
AUD/USD rose yesterday testing the 0.7265 (R1) resistance line, yet during today’s Asian session, stabilised, even corrected a bit lower. Given that the pair has broken the upward trendline guiding it since the 23rd of August, we switch our bullish outlook in favour of a bias for a sideways movement for the time being. Should the selling interest be extended we may see AUD/USD breaking the 0.7200 (S1) support line and aim for the 0.7115 (S2) support level. Should on the other hand buyers take over the initiative for the pair’s direction, we may see AUD/USD breaking the 0.7265 (R1) resistance line and aim for the 0.7335 (R2) level.
Other economic highlights today and the following Asian session:
Today we get Germany’s Ifo indicators for August and from the US we note the release of the durable goods orders for July, while oil traders may be more interested in the release of EIA’s weekly crude oil inventories figure. On the monetary front we note the speeches of ECB’s Vice President De Guindos and San Francisco Fed President Daly. During tomorrow’s Asian session we note Australia’s CapEx growth rate for Q2.
Support: 15300 (S1), 15150 (S2), 14950 (S3)
Resistance: 15500 (R1), 15700 (R2), 15900 (R3)
AUD/USD H4 Chart
Support: 0.7200 (S1), 0.7115 (S2), 0.7020 (S3)
Resistance: 0.7265 (R1), 0.7335 (R2), 0.7420 (R3)
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