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As the war in Ukraine rages on the US increase the pressure on Russia and the US President is about to call an end for Russia’s preferred trading status, a move that would practically open the way for the US to apply sanctions on imports from Russia. It should be noted that the US ambassador to the UN has accused Russia of war crimes an allegation Russia has denied. On the other hand Russian President Putin stated that despite the sanctions imposed by the West Russia is to emerge stronger. Also please bear in mind that the negotiations which were carried out yesterday in Antalya Turkey between Russia and Ukraine ended fruitless despite some hopes for some progress. From the US today we note the release of the preliminary University of Michigan consumer sentiment for March and should the indicator’s reading drop as forecasted, we may see the USD slipping.
GBP/USD dropped yesterday and during today’s Asian session as the pair tested the 1.3065 (S1) support line. We maintain a bearish outlook for cable as long as it remains below the downward trendline which commenced to direct the pair on the 23rd of February. Should the bears actually maintain control over the pair we may see cable breaking the 1.3065 (S1) support line and aim for the 1.2990 (S2) level. Should on the other hand the bulls take over, we may see the pair breaking the 1.3170 (R1) resistance lien and aim for the 1.3275 (R2) resistance level.
Canada’s employment data to rock the Loonie
In the American session we note the release of Canada’s employment data for February. The employment change figure is expected to rise out of the negatives and reach 160k if compared to January’s -200.1k, while the unemployment rate is expected to drop to 6.2% if compared to prior month’s 6.5%. In general, the metrics should the actual rates and figures meet their respective forecasts, align and point towards a tightening of the Canadian employment market which in turn could allow for BoC to maintain a hawkish stance regarding its monetary policy. Overall the effect of the release could be bullish for the CAD if as described above. On a more fundamental level we must note that the CAD seems not to follow oil prices which have been dropping since the beginning of the week while the CAD seems to be gaining some ground against the USD, even as the market sentiment seems to remain risk off.
USD/CAD dropped below the 1.2785 (R1) support line, now turned to resistance. We must note that the pair has clear bearish tendencies as the pair’s price action forms lower lows and lower highs. Please note though the RSI indicator below our 4-hour chart is at the reading of 50 implying some indecisiveness on behalf of the market. Should the selling interest be maintained we may see the pair aiming if not testing the 1.2660 (S1) support line which provided support for the pair a number of times over the past two months and was well noted by traders. Should buyers take over, we may see the pair breaking the 1.2785 (R1) resistance line which also served as an upper boundary of the pair’s sideways movement in the last days of January up until the 23rd of February and also provided resistance during today’s Asian session with the next level to be noted being the 1.2855 (R2) resistance level.
Today’s events and expectations
Today in the European session we get from Germany the final HICP rate for February and from the United Kingdom we note the release of the manufacturing output growth rate for February as well as the GDP rate for the same month. At the same time we note from Turkey the release of the current account balance for January. In the American session we note the release of Canada’s employment data for February and from the US we note the release of the preliminary University of Michigan consumer sentiment for March.
Support: 1.3065 (S1), 1.2990 (S2), 1.2890 (S3)
Resistance: 1.3170 (R1), 1.3275 (R2), 1.3365 (R3)
USD/CAD H4 Chart
Support: 1.2660 (S1), 1.2560 (S2), 1.2455 (S3)
Resistance: 1.2785 (R1), 1.2855 (R2), 1.2945 (R3
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JA 
