EUR braces as Paris lockdown imposed

The common currency maintained a steady course against the USD, while tended to relent some ground against the pound and JPY yesterday. The rise of COVID 19 infections through the continent seems to be worrying investors and its characteristic of the situation that France imposed a lockdown in Paris and other major cities, between 9 pm and 6 am for four weeks, beginning Saturday. Concerns tended to intensify further given that German Chancellor Merkel warned that Germany economically could not afford a second wave with the same consequences they had in spring. Germany is the largest economy of the Eurozone and the country had outperformed its European counterparts in the crisis, could now be struggling, while a similar trend seems to be displayed by France the second largest economy in the Eurozone. It should be noted that the rise of infections can be observed in a number of European countries, including Italy, Spain, Portugal and all countries have imposed measures in an effort to curb the spreading of the disease. Should new infections continue to spread through Europe we could see the situation weighing on the common currency, given that the second wave would take its toll economically, slowing economic recovery.
EUR/USD maintained a sideways motion with little volatility yesterday, remaining just above the 1.1720 (S1) support line. We tend to expect the pair to remain in a sideways motion until EUR/USD’s price action decides on its next leg. Yet EUR fundamentals seem to be leaning on the bearish side for EUR, while also US fundamentals could affect substantially the pair’s direction. Should the bears actually take over, we could see the pair breaking the 1.1720 (S1) support line and aim for the 1.1655 (S2) level. On the other hand, should the bulls be in charge, we could see EUR/USD breaking the 1.1790 (R1) line which contained the pair’s ascent on the 5th and 6th of October and start aiming for the 1.1850 (R2) level.

AUD weakens on dovish RBA governor Lowe

The Aussie tended to weaken yesterday as RBA Governor Lowe in a speech yesterday sounded dovish, as he seemed to prepare the markets for more easing. Governor Lowe stated that further policy easing would have more impact now, that coronavirus restrictions were being eased across much of the country. Analysts were quick to react, and some underscored the possibility of the bank lowering its interest rates from a historical low of 0.25% to 0.10%. Also, Governor Lowe stated that RBA’s “main focus” would be to create jobs, while September’s data showed that the unemployment rate ticked up and the employment change figure dropped into the negatives also increasing worries for the Australian employment market. The Aussie could continue to be volatile as a commodity currency but the prospect of RBA cutting rates in its November meeting could weigh on the AUD.
AUD/USD dropped yesterday aiming for the 0.7100 (S1) support line. We maintain a bearish outlook for the pair, as long as it remains below the downward trendline incepted since the 9th of October and our last technical analysis of the pair. Should the pair remain under the selling interest of the market, we could see the market breaking the 0.7100 (S1) line and aim for the 0.7025 (S2) level. Should the buyers take over, we could see the pair breaking the 0.7200 (R1) and aim for the 0.7300 (R2) level.

Other economic highlights today and early tomorrow

During today’s European session we get France’s final CPI (EU Normalised) rate for September. In the American session, we highlight the weekly initial jobless claims figure, the NY Fed Manufacturing for October and the Philly Fed business index for the same month. As for speakers, Atlanta Fed President Bostic, BoE’s Cunliffe, BoC Deputy Governor Lane, Fed’s Vice Chair Quarles, Dallas Fed President Kaplan, St. Louis Fed President Bullard, ECB President Christine Lagarde and Richmond Fed President Barkin are scheduled to speak.

EUR/USD 4 Hour Chart

Support: 1.1720 (S1), 1.1655 (S2), 1.1600 (S3)

Resistance: 1.1790 (R1), 1.1850 (R2), 1.1910 (R3)

AUD/USD H4 Hour Chart

Support: 0.7100 (S1), 0.7025 (S2), 0.6940 (S3)

Resistance: 0.7200 (R1), 0.7300 (R2), 0.7410 (R3)

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