Aussie climbs to a 1-week high

The Aussie climbed to a 1-week high yesterday and stabilised above the key resistance line of 0.7300, as the news for a COVID-19 vaccine tended to favour riskier assets such as the commodity currency. Moderna announced that its vaccine would be 95% effective becoming the second company after Pfizer to announce its testing results and increasing hopes in the market in the fight against the pandemic. Earlier on, RBA released the minutes of its last meeting in which it was stated that the bank is ready to provide further assistance if necessary. RBA Governor Lowe in a speech, stated that growth depends on keeping the virus under control and that now is not the time for higher rates. Worries for Aussie traders tend to be on the rise though, as South Australia goes on high alert as the virus has another outbreak after months. Also, the recent deterioration of the relationships between Australia and China could weigh on AUD.
We expect Australia’s employment data in the next two days and RBA governor Lowe speech tomorrow to be closely watched by AUD traders, and if the risk on mood persist, we could see the Aussie getting further support and vice versa. AUD/USD continued to rise breaking the 0.7300 (S1) resistance line now turned to support, before stabilising somewhat during today’s Asian session. We maintain a bullish outlook for the pair as long as the upward trendline incepted since the 13th of the month. Should the bulls continue to guide the pair, we could see AUD/USD rising yet for the pair to break the 0.7410 (R1) line in the next 24 hours a steepening of the upward trendline would be required. Should the bears take over, we could see the pair breaking the prementioned upward trendline, the 0.7300 (S1) support line and start aiming for the 0.7200 (S2) level.

CAD regains ground benefited by risk on mood

The CAD tended to gain against the USD as a risk on mood by the markets was on the rise supporting commodity currency CAD, especially after Moderna’s announcement boosted hopes for a return to relative normality. However, in CAD fundamentals also the recent rise of oil prices tended to support CAD, as Canada is a major oil producer and the Canadian economy could benefit from higher oil prices. Canada’s manufacturing sales were on the rise for September as was yesterday reported, showing growth once again after the contraction suffered in August. Today we note Canada’s wholesale trade for September and BoC Governor Macklem’s speech, while CAD traders could also be keeping an eye out for the course of oil prices. USD/CAD continued its descent lower yesterday aiming for the 1.3035 (S1) support line.
We tend to maintain a bearish outlook for the pair and for it to change we would require a clear breaking of the downward trendline incepted since the 13th of November. Please note that the current price action of the pair is about to put the prementioned trendline to the test once again. Should the selling interest of the market for the pair continue, we could see the pair breaking the 1.3035 (S1) line and aim for the 1.2955 (S2) level. Should the pair find fresh buying orders along its path, we could see it breaking the prementioned downward trendline and aim if not break the 1.3150 (R1) resistance line which tended to create considerable difficulties for the pair’s ascent on the 13th of November, marking its peak since the 5th of the month.

Other economic highlights today and early tomorrow

Today in the European session, we get Norway’s GDP rate for Q3. In the American session, we highlight the US retail sales and industrial production growth rates for October and Canada’s, while in the American session, we note the US NY Fed Manufacturing index for November and Canada’s wholesale trade for September. Also note that just before the Asian session we get the US API weekly crude oil inventories figure and later on we note the release of Japan’s trade data for October and Australia’s wage price index for Q3. A plethora of speakers are scheduled to day yet we highlight Fed Chair Powell’s speech, BoE Governor Bailey, ECB President Lagarde, BoC Governor Macklem and RBA Governor Lowe.

AUD/USD H4 Chart

Support: 0.7300 (S1), 0.7200 (S2), 0.7100 (S3)

Resistance: 0.7410 (R1), 0.7480 (R2), 0.7560 (R3)

USD/CAD H4 Chart

Support: 1.3035 (S1), 1.2955 (S2), 1.2885 (S3)

Resistance: 1.3150 (R1), 1.3240 (R2), 1.3320 (R3)

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