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The RBA July meeting minutes, clearly hint that the bank is considering further rates hikes, as it was stated that “inflationary pressures may be more persistent than previously expected, further policy rate increases by several central banks, and central banks’ communication that further tightening is likely to be required”. Indicative, that the bank still has concerns about “the continued tight labor market reflected the usual lags from activity to labor market outcomes”. Canada’s CPI rates are due to be released later today, with market analysts expecting an alleviation of inflationary pressures on the Canadian economy. In the event that the CPI rates come in higher than expected, we may see the Loonie gaining ground against the dollar, as it would imply that the BoC may still have some way to go, in reducing inflationary pressures, thus opening the door for future rate hikes. In the commodities market, we note that Russia yesterday did not extend the UN-brokered grain deal, that saw Ukrainian grain continue to flow into global markets. Therefore, should the deal not be renewed for a prolonged period of time, we may see the price of Wheat increasing, as supply is gradually reduced, combined with recent extreme weather phenomena affecting grain producers, which could potentially result in volatile price swings over the coming months. In the US markets, we note the highly anticipated US retail sales rates which are due to be released later on during the day, with market analysts anticipating the rate to tick up. Thus, should the anticipated rates be materialized, we may see the greenback gaining ground, as it could provide some breathing room for the Fed, should they wish to continue on their aggressive interest rate hiking path. In the US Equities markets, we note that Morgan Stanley (#MS) and LockheedMartin (#LockheedMT) are due to release their earnings results today, with both companies anticipated to beat last quarter’s earnings per share and revenues.
USD/JPY tended to have some minor gains against the JPY, yet the pair continues to respect the 138.80 (R1) resistance level. We tend to maintain a neutral outlook for the pair, as long as the price action remains between the 137.45 (S1) support level and the 138.80 (R1) resistance level and supporting our case is the break above the downwards moving trendline, yet having failed to break above the 138.80 (R1) resistance line, in addition to the RSI indicator remaining near the figure of 50, implying a neutral market sentiment. For a bullish outlook, we would like to see a clear break above the 138.80 (R1) resistance level, with the next possible target for the bulls being the 140.80 (R2) resistance ceiling. On the other hand, for a bearish outlook, we would like to see a clear break below the 137.45 (S1) support level, with the next possible target for the bears being the 135.70 (S2) support base.
EUR/USD continued in its upwards ascent, with the pair now aiming for the 1.1270 (R1) resistance level. We maintain a bullish outlook for the pair and supporting our case is the upwards moving trendline which was incepted on the 6a. of July, in addition to the RSI indicator remaining above the figure of 70 , implying a strong bullish market sentiment. For our bullish outlook to continue, we would like to see a clear break above the 1.1270 (R1) resistance level, with the next possible target for the bulls being the 1.1370 (R2) resistance ceiling. On the other hand, for a bearish outlook, we would like to see a clear break below the 1.1175 (S1) support level, with the next possible target for the bears being the 1.1020 (S2) support base.
Other highlights for the day:
After an easygoing European session we note in the American session, the release of the US retail sales, US industrial production and Canada’s CPI rates, all being for June. Oil traders, on the other hand, may be more interested in the release of the US weekly API crude oil inventories figure while on the monetary front, we note that BoE MPC member Ramsden is scheduled to speak. During tomorrow’s Asian session, we note the release of New Zealand’s CPI rates.
USD/JPY H4 Chart
Support: 137.45 (S1), 135.70 (S2), 133.75 (S3)
Resistance: 138.80 (R1), 140.80 (R2), 142.30 (R3)
EUR/USD H4 Chart
Support: 1.1175 (S1), 1.1020 (S2), 1.0855 (S3)
Resistance: 1.1270 (R1), 1.1370 (R2), 1.1465 (R3)
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