Observar os comentários diários e tomar decisões com informação

Registro

Equities report: Despite uncertainty, optimism starts  to emerge

Overall since our last report, US stock markets seem to timidly be on the rise which could be implying that some slight optimism may have started to emerge among market participants. Today we are to discuss the latest developments regarding, the US-Sino trade war, have a look on its consequences on specific companies and also have a preview of high impact financial releases due out in the next few days that could impact US stock markets. For a rounder view we are to provide a technical analysis of S&P’s 500 daily chart.

Latest developments in Trump’s trade war

US President Trump yesterday signed orders for an easing of his auto tariffs. The easing consists in the offsetting of tariffs for auto parts produced elsewhere and imported to the US by 3.75% of the value of the Manufacturer’s Suggested Retail Price to end of April 2026 and 2.5% by end of April 2027. Despite the relief giving the impression of some easing of trade tensions, practically the US President is providing US automakers with some leeway to adjust to the new norms. The heart of US President Trump’s trade policies remains intact. On another sign of easing of trade tensions, US Commerce Secretary Lutnick stated that the US has reached its first trade deal and is waiting for approvals from the counterpart country before announcing it. Such a trade deal may be considered an encouraging sign, yet more trade deals are required to generate the sense that it’s a matter of time before the tensions materially ease. On the flip side, China’s rhetoric remains hawkish, with consistent statements from Chinese officials and Chinese leader Xi Jinping, that China will not back down, while at the same time calls upon other nations to resist the bullying of the US. It should be noted that China’s manufacturing PMI figures for April dropped implying that Chinese factories may be struggling. In a latest development China is reported to have created a list of U.S.-made products that would be exempted from China’s 125% tariffs, which tends to suggest an easing of tensions. In the big picture any further escalating of the trade war could reverse the positive market sentiment that has started to emerge and thus weigh on US equity markets, while any further easing could support US stock markets. 

Amazon and VW reaching the headlines

Volkswagen one of the largest automakers worldwide, announced today that profit margins are likely to be to the lower end of its 5.5-6.5% forward guidance, citing that the instability of international trading conditions given US resident Trump’s trade wars make any forecast as practically impossible. It should be noted that other car makers have made similar statements highlighting the uncertainty for their outlook, which turn may weigh on the sector as a whole. On a retail level, we highlight the reported plans of Amazon to display separately the cost of the US President’s tariffs, a move that caused the anger of the US President. It’s characteristic that White House press secretary Leavitt characterised the move as “a hostile and political act by Amazon”.  The company quickly denied any such plans by stating that “The team that runs our ultra low cost Amazon Haul store considered the idea of listing import charges on certain products. This was never approved and is not going to happen“. It should be noted that the two sides have now made up with Trump saying that Bezos is a “good guy” but the issue highlighted that company seems to be closely watched by the US administration and the overall situation remains tense, hence any similar escalation could spell trouble for Amazon and its share price.

April’s US employment report may shake the markets

Last but not least, we would like to point out some financial releases which in turn could move the markets. We make a start in today’s early American session, as the US GDP advance rate for Q1 is to be released and is expected to slow down considerably and should the actual rate be even lower, we may see the release weighing on US stock markets. On Friday we highlight the release of the US employment report for April with its NFP figure and the unemployment rate. Should the rates and figures imply a tighter than expected US employment market, we may see the release weighing on US equities while further cooling of the US employment market may provide support for US stock markets as the market’s expectations for the Fed to continue with extensive monetary policy easing could be enhanced.

Análise técnica

US500 Daily Chart

  • Support: 5520 (S1), 5345 (S2), 5155 (S3)
  • Resistance: 5710 (R1), 5710 (R2), 5900 (R3)

On a technical level, we note the consistency in the rise of the index’s price action since our last report, as S&P 500 broke the 5520 (S1) resistance line, now turned to support. We note that the index’s price action was able to escape the symmetrical triangle being formed by breaking the downward trendline incepted since the 20a. of February which tends to highlight the bullish prospective for the index’s price action. Yet despite the bullish signal the RSI indicator tends to note an only marginal rise,  remaining just above the reading of 50, implying a relative indecisiveness on behalf of market participants about S&P’s future direction. Should the bulls continue to lead the index’s price action we may see S&P 500 reaching if not breaching the 5710 (R1) resistance level, with the next target for the bulls being possibly at the 5900 (R2) resistance level. A bearish scenario currently seems remote yet is still possible and for its adoption we would require the index’s price action drop, breaking clearly the 5520 (S1) support line and continue to break also the 5345 (S2) support level, while even lower we note the 5155 (S3) support base.

Se tiver alguma dúvida ou comentários sobre este artigo, solicitamos que envie um email diretamente para a nossa equipa de Research através do research_team@ironfx.com research_team@ironfx.com

INFORMAÇÃO LEGAL IMPORTANTE:
Esta informação não é considerada como aconselhamento ou recomendação ao investimento, mas apenas como comunicação de marketing. O IronFX não é responsável por quaisquer dados ou pela informação fornecida por terceiros aqui mencionados, ou com links diretos, nesta comunicação.

Subscreva a nossa newsletter
[gravityform id="4" title="false" ajax="true"]
Tenha em atenção que o seu e-mail será utilizado exclusivamente para fins de marketing. Para mais informações, por favor leia o nosso Política de Privacidade
Partilhar:
Home Forex blog Equities report: Despite uncertainty, optimism starts  to emerge
Affiliate World
Global
Dubai, EAU
28 February – 1 March 2022

IronFX Affiliates

iFX EXPO Dubai

22-24 February 2022

Dubai World Trade Center

Meet us there!

Campeonato Iron Worlds

Grande Final

Prize Pool!*

*São aplicados T&C.

iron-world
iron-world

Iron World

16 de novembro a 16 de dezembro

Depósito Mínimo $5,000

Qualquer negociação implica riscos.
É possível perder a totalidade do seu capital.

The Iron Worlds Championship

one-million

Prize Pool!*

planet-usd-thunder
planet-usd-thunder

Titania World

De 15 de outubro a 15 de novembro

Depósito Mínimo $3.000

*T&Cs aplicáveis. Todas as negociações envolvem risco. É possível perder todo o seu capital

Campeonato Iron Worlds

one-million

Prize Pool!*

elements-desktop
elements-mobile

Tantalum World

14 de setembro - 14 de outubro

Depósito mínimo de $500

*T&Cs aplicáveis. Todas as negociações envolvem risco. É possível perder todo o seu capital

Obrigado por visitar IronFX

Este website não é direcionado a residentes do Reino Unido e está fora do enquadramento regulamentar Europeu e do MiFID II, assim como das regras, orientações e proteções estipuladas no Guia da Autoridade de Conduta Financeira do Reino Unido.

Informe-nos como pretende continuar.

Obrigado por visitar IronFX

Este website não é direcionado para residentes da UE e não se enquadra no regulamento europeu MiFID II.
Por favor, clique abaixo se desejar continuar IronFX de qualquer forma.

Campeonato Iron Worlds

one-million

Prize Pool!*

Phosphora World

14 August - 13 September

Depósito mínimo de $500

*T&Cs aplicáveis. Todas as negociações envolvem risco. É possível perder todo o seu capital