Fiscal stimulus talks weaken USD

The USD tended to weaken against most of its counterparts yesterday as there were media reporting that the two parties in the US had agreed to resume talks for a fiscal stimulus. It should be noted that US administration and the Fed publicly collided over whether to extend the monetary programs of the Fed. It was characteristic that US Treasury Secretary Mnuchin called for an end to some of the Fed’s lending programs while the Fed stated that it “would prefer that the full suite of emergency facilities established during the pandemic continue to serve their important role as a backstop,“ as per Reuters. At the same time, it should be noted that the California and Ohio have ordered nightly lockdowns in an effort to curb the surging infections, while the Thanksgiving holidays next week could pose a threat of resurging the virus. In US politics, Georgia’s recount has reaffirmed the win of Biden, weakening the case for Trump to dispute the result of the US elections, while Biden attacked the lack of cooperation of the Trump administration for the transition of the presidency. We expect that should market worries characterise the market’s moves today the USD could enjoy some safe haven inflows and vice versa.
The USD index dropped testing once again the 92.20 (S1) support line. Despite the pair’s downward motion yesterday we remain hesitant to call the bears, as the 92.20 (S1) support line was tested twice so far in the November and was able to hold its ground reversing the index’s downward motion. Should the bears maintain control we could see the index breaking the 92.20 (S1) line and start aiming for the 91.75 (S2) hurdle. If the bulls take over, the USD Index could reverse course and aim if not break the 92.80 (R1) line.

Lagarde urges EU leaders for fiscal stimulus

ECB’s president Christine Lagarde pressed EU leaders for quick action on a possible fiscal stimulus for Europe. The ECB President stated that EU governments should make the pandemic relief stimulus available without delay and at the same time pledged for a forceful ECB stimulus program in the bank’s December meeting. It should be noted that the statements were made just hours before an EU summit were EU leaders were to discuss a fiscal stimulus of 1.8 trillion. Hungary and Poland seem to have blocked the proposal currently, over stipulations they uphold the rule of law, risking a delay for the EU as a whole. Negotiations are to continue, with a possible compromise to be found in the December summit. Overall, we tend to remain bearish for the common currency fundamentally, given the current state of the pandemic in the continent and the adverse forecasts for the today’s financial releases affecting the common currency.
EUR/USD maintained an upward motion breaking the 1.1850 (S1) resistance line, now turned to support. The pair has moved in a sideways motion in the past two days yet a bullish bias may prevail, given the upward motion of the pair and the RSI indicator which is above the reading of 50 aiming slightly upwards. Should buyers maintain control today, we could see the pair breaking the 1.1910 (R1) resistance line and aim for the 1.1965 (r2) level. Should the pair come under the selling interest of the markets once again, we could see it breaking the 1.1850 (S1) support line and aim for the 1.1790 (S2) level.

Other economic highlights today and early tomorrow

Today in the European session, we highlight Germany’s producer price gorwht rate for October, UK’s retail sales growth rate for October ad in the American session, Canada’s retail sales growth rate for September as well as the Eurozone’s preliminary consumer confidence indicator for November and the US Baker Hughes weekly oil rig count. During Monday’s Asian session, we get New Zealand’s retail sales for Q3 as well as the preliminary PMI’s of Australia for November. Also please note that ECB President Christine Lagarde, ECB’s De Guindos, Richmond Fed President Barkin, Dallas Fed President Kaplan, Kansas Fed President George and Fed Chair Jerome Powell speak.

US Index H4 Chart

Support: 92.20 (S1), 91.75 (S2), 91.30 (S3)

Resistance: 92.80 (R1), 93.40 (R2), 93.95 (R3)

EUR/USD H4 Chart

Support: 1.1850 (S1), 1.1790 (S2), 1.1720 (S3)

Resistance: 1.1920 (R1), 1.1965 (R2), 1.2010 (R3)

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