Equities report: FOMC minutes due out today

There has been a slight decline on behalf of US stock markets since the start of the week, with the S&P500 retreating slightly from it’s newly formed all time high. In today’s report, we are to have a look at the upcoming release of the FOMC’s meeting minutes, the ongoing tariff narrative, Elon’s America Party and lastly a small note about upcoming earnings reports. The report is to be concluded with a technical analysis of S&P 500’s daily chart.

FOMC minutes due out today

The FOMC’s June meeting minutes are due to be released in tomorrow’s American session. The FOMC’s last meeting minutes may garner significant attention considering the comments made by the Fed Chair that the Fed would’ve cut rates this year had there not been tariffs. As such the bank’s accompanying statement may garner significant attention from market participants who may looking to seek further information as to how the bank may proceed with their monetary policy going forward. In turn, should the minutes be perceived as predominantly dovish in nature such as implying that the bank is seeing positive signs for the US economy and the time for a rate cut may be nearing, it could aid the US Equities markets. However, should the minutes showcase a willingness by the Fed to refrain from cutting rates, it could instead weigh on the US Equities markets. In our view, Powell’s comments showcase a willingness by the Fed to cut rates, yet the ongoing tariff agenda appears to have hindered those ambitions and thus we wouldn’t be surprised to see a nod in the minutes that the outlook may have improved, yet some concern still persists as a result of ongoing trade negotiations.

Tariff narrative picks up once again

The deadline for trade deals prior to the re-impositon of tariffs from the US was today July 9th 2025. Yet on Monday, President Trump announced that this deadline would be extended to the 1st of August which in turn appears to have been well received by market participants.The extension appears to have provided some leeway for major trading partners who have yet to agree to trade terms with the United States of America and thus may have reduced worries by market participants over a potential repeat of the volatility which was seen when the tariffs were first announced. Moreover, the extension showcases to some extent a willingness by the US to be amenable and thus by providing more time for “deals” to be made, the US equities markets may have gained as a result. However, we should note that despite the extension a possible 25% tariff was announced on South Korea and Japan from the US, as well as tariffs on South Africa, Kazahkstan, Laos, Malaysia, Myanmar, Tunisia, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Indonesia, Bangladesh, Serbia, Cambodia and Thailand. Although, what we found most interesting this week was the statement by the US President that “”Any Country aligning themselves with the Anti-American policies of BRICS, will be charged an ADDITIONAL 10% Tariff. There will be no exceptions to this policy. Thank you for your attention to this matter!”, which could lead to some elevated trade tensions between the US and China which currently have a fragile “truce” agreement and thus may warrant closer attention for the rest of the month for any new developments.

Elon forms “America First Party”

President Trump and Elon Musk’s falling out has continued to intensify since our last report with Elon Musk proposing his new “America Party” over the weekend. In turn President Trump responded by stating that “I am saddened to watch Elon Musk go completely ‘off the rails,’ essentially becoming a TRAIN WRECK over the past five weeks”, in turn the continued deterioration of the relationship between the two appears to have weighed on Tesla’s (#TSLA) stock price as the company unwillingly finds itself in the crosshairs of the US Government and the forefront of a very public dispute over political policy as a result of it’s owner’s political views. Thus, should they fail to reconcile with one another, we would not be surprised to see Tesla’s (#TSLA) stock price moving lower in the coming week.

Earnings up ahead

Earnings season has resumed and we take this time to mention noteworthy companies that are set to release their earnings next week. Starting with Tuesday we would like to note WellsFargo (#WFC), JP Morgan (#JPM, on Wednesday we note Morgan Stanley (#MS), GoldmanSachs (#GS), on Thursday General Electric (#GE) and on Friday we note 3M (#MMM) and Netflix (#NFLX).

TECHNISCHE ANALYSE

US500 Daily Chart

• Support: 6135 (S1), 5775 (S2), 5485 (S3)
• Resistance: 6425 (R1), 6715 (R2), 7000 (R3)

S&P 500 appears to be moving in an upwards fashion with the index having hit new all-time highs. We opt for a predominantly bullish outlook for the index and supporting our case is the RSI indicator below our chart which currently registers a figure near 70 implying a strong bullish market sentiment, in addition to the MACD indicator below our chart. For our bullish outlook to continue we would require the index to remain above the S1 support level and possibly clearing our 6425 (R1) hypothetical resistance level with the next possible target for the bulls being the possible 6715 (R2) resistance line. On the other hand for a bearish outlook we would require a clear break below our 6135 (S1) support level with the next possible target for the bears being the 5775 (S2) support line. Lastly, for a sideways bias we would require the index to remain confined between our 6135 (S1) support level and our hypothetical 6425 (R1) resistance line.

If you have any general queries or comments relating to this article please send an email directly to our Research team at research_team@ironfx.com

Disclaimer:
This information is not considered as investment advice or an investment recommendation, but instead a marketing communication. IronFX is not responsible for any data or information provided by third parties referenced, or hyperlinked, in this communication.

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