{"id":130135,"date":"2026-05-04T12:16:26","date_gmt":"2026-05-04T09:16:26","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ironfx-com.wp-dev.int.theitops.net\/?p=130135"},"modified":"2026-05-04T12:18:00","modified_gmt":"2026-05-04T09:18:00","slug":"rba-expected-to-hike-rates","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.ironfxcn.com\/ms\/rba-expected-to-hike-rates\/","title":{"rendered":"RBA expected to hike rates"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>RBA expected to hike rates by 25 basis points in tomorrow\u2019s Asian session, keeping market focus firmly on the central bank\u2019s forward guidance and its impact on the Australian dollar. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Forex traders will closely watch whether the RBA signals more tightening ahead, as such a message could support AUD, while a more cautious tone may trigger a market re-pricing and renewed pressure on the currency.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-us-preparing-to-open-straits-of-hormuz\"><strong><strong><strong><strong><strong><strong><strong><strong><strong><strong><strong>US preparing to open Straits of Hormuz<\/strong><\/strong><\/strong><\/strong><\/strong><\/strong><\/strong><\/strong><\/strong><\/strong><\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>US President Trump stated that the US will start helping ships to exit the Persian Gulf, yet such a move could signal a general opening of the Straits of Hormuz. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Yet such a move by the US could provoke Iran to respond, thus lead to new escalation of tensions in the area. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>We also note that OPEC has agreed to increase production for another month in June, yet may be overshadowed by tensions in the area. <a href=\"https:\/\/www.ironfx.com\/en\/shifting-attention-towards-ecb-boe\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Oil prices<\/a> retreated on Friday, yet they seem to hesitate to drop below $100 per barrel.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-mixed-signals-from-us-stock-markets\"><strong><strong><strong><strong><strong><strong><strong><strong><strong><strong><strong>Mixed signals from US stock markets<\/strong><\/strong><\/strong><\/strong><\/strong><\/strong><\/strong><\/strong><\/strong><\/strong><\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>US high-tech shares continue to be the market\u2019s darling with focus on AI, as Nasdaq reached new record high levels. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Yet in general, we note signals are rather mixed from US equity markets. We also note GameStop\u2019s aggressive move to take over eBay, which could provide some support for eBay\u2019s share price.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-rba-expected-to-hike-rates-but-will-it-signal-more-to-come\"><strong><strong><strong><strong><strong><strong><strong><strong><strong><strong><strong>RBA expected to hike rates, but will it signal more to come?<\/strong><\/strong><\/strong><\/strong><\/strong><\/strong><\/strong><\/strong><\/strong><\/strong><\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>On a monetary level, we highlight the release of Australia\u2019s RBA interest rate decision in tomorrow\u2019s Asian session. The bank is expected to hike rates by 25 basis points, which is also our base scenario. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Should the bank signal that it\u2019s prepared to continue hiking rates, we may see the Aussie getting some support, while a failure of the bank to do so may weigh on AUD, as the market would have to re-adjust its expectations.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-other-highlights-for-today\"><strong>Other highlights for today<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>Today we get Turkey\u2019s CPI rates for April, Euro Zone\u2019s Sentix index for May, and the US Factory orders for March.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-as-for-the-rest-of-the-week\"><strong>As for the rest of the week<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>On Tuesday, we get Switzerland\u2019s CPI rates for April, Canada\u2019s trade data for March, the US ISM non-manufacturing PMI figure for April and the US JOLTS job openings figure for March.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>On Wednesday, we get New Zealand\u2019s employment data for Q1, Sweden\u2019s and the Czech Republic\u2019s CPI rates for April and the US ADP national employment figure for April. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>On Thursday, we get Australia\u2019s trade data for March, Germany\u2019s industrial orders for March, Sweden\u2019s Riksbank, Norway\u2019s Norgesbank and the Czech Republic\u2019s CNB interest rate decisions and the weekly US initial jobless claims figure. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>On Friday, we get UK\u2019s House Price Rightmove for May, Germany\u2019s industrial output for March, the UK Halifax House prices for April, Canada\u2019s employment data for April, the US preliminary UOM consumer sentiment for May and we highlight the release of the employment report for April.\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-charts-to-keep-an-eye-out\"><strong>Charts to keep an eye out<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-aud-usd\"><strong><strong><strong><strong><strong><strong>AUD\/USD<\/strong><\/strong><\/strong><\/strong><\/strong><\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>After bouncing on the 0.7110 (S1) support line <strong><a href=\"https:\/\/www.ironfx.com\/en\/markets\/forex\/AUDUSD\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">AUD\/USD<\/a><\/strong> showed some slight bullish tendencies , but nothing convincing yet. The RSI indicator implies a bullish predisposition of the market for the pair.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>We maintain a currently a bias for a sideways motion, yet also warn of the pair\u2019s bullish tendencies, and note that RBA\u2019s interest rate decision could alter AUD\/USD\u2019s direction. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Should the bulls take over, AUD\/USD may break the 0.7280 (R1) resistance line and start aiming for the 0.7465 (R2) level. Should the bears be in charge, AUD\/USD may break the 0.7110 (S1) support line, setting its sights on the 0.6940 (S2) level.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-nasdaq\"><strong><strong><strong><strong><strong><strong><strong><strong>NASDAQ<\/strong><\/strong><\/strong><\/strong><\/strong><\/strong><\/strong><\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p><strong><a href=\"https:\/\/www.ironfx.com\/en\/markets\/indices\/US100Cash\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">NASDAQ<\/a><\/strong> reached new All Time Highs by continuing to rise on Friday and breaking the 27500 (S1) resistance line, now turned to support.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>We maintain a bullish outlook for WTI\u2019s price as long as the upward trendline guiding it remains intact. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>We set as the next possible target for the bulls the 28750 (R1) resistance line, while should for a bearish outlook, which we see as remote currently, the index, would have to break consecutively the upward trendline, signalling an interruption of the upward movement and the 27500 (S1) support line and start actively aiming if not nearing the 26250 (S2) support level.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img fetchpriority=\"high\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"829\" height=\"632\" src=\"\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/05\/calendar-economic-forex-news-analysis-05042026.png\" alt=\"Forex economic news calendar with key events including Turkey CPI, Germany PMI, and RBA rate decision.\" class=\"wp-image-130136\"\/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"831\" height=\"201\" src=\"\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/05\/benchmark-table-analysis-currency-rates-05042026.png\" alt=\"Bar graph titled &quot;Benchmark Currency Rates - Daily Gainers &amp; Losers.&quot; AUD\/USD is up 0.26%, while USD\/JPY is down 0.62%. Other currency changes are within \u00b10.05%.\" class=\"wp-image-130137\"\/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-aud-usd-daily-chart\"><strong><strong><strong><strong><strong><strong><strong><strong>AUD\/USD Daily Chart<\/strong><\/strong><\/strong><\/strong><\/strong><\/strong><\/strong><\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"1916\" height=\"888\" src=\"\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/05\/aud-usd-daily-charts-05042026-currency-pairs.png\" alt=\"A forex trading chart shows upward trend of the AUD\/USD pair with key resistance levels in red and support levels in green. Includes Bollinger Bands and RSI.\" class=\"wp-image-130138\"\/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Support: 0.7110 (S1), 0.6940 (S2), 0.6800 (S3)<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Resistance: 0.7280 (R1), 0.7455 (R2), 0.7655 (R3)\u00a0<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-us100-daily-chart\"><strong><strong><strong><strong><strong><strong><strong><strong><strong><strong>US100 Daily Chart<\/strong><\/strong><\/strong><\/strong><\/strong><\/strong><\/strong><\/strong><\/strong><\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1916\" height=\"888\" src=\"\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/05\/us-100-cash-daily-05042026-currency-pairs.png\" alt=\"US100 stock chart showing sharp uptrend with candlesticks, Bollinger Bands, RSI, and marked support and resistance levels.\" class=\"wp-image-130139\"\/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Support: 27500 (S1), 26250 (S2), 25375 (S3)<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Resistance: 28750 (R1), 30000 (R2), 31250 (R3)\u00a0<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p>Disclaimer:<br>This information is not considered as investment advice or an investment recommendation, but instead a marketing communication. IronFX is not responsible for any data or information provided by third parties referenced, or hyperlinked, in this communication.<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>USD weakened despite favorable data The selling momentum for the USD in the FX market was maintained yesterday, given the<\/p>","protected":false},"author":15,"featured_media":107933,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"_daim_seo_power":"","_daim_enable_ail":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-130135","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-uncategorized","blog-category-financial-news","entry"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v27.5 (Yoast SEO v27.5) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-premium-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>RBA Expected to Hike Rates as Markets Watch AUD Outlook<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"RBA expected to hike rates by 25bps as markets watch guidance. 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