US Sino trade deal back in focus with commodities

According to Reuters, U.S. crude oil shipments to China are expected to increase significantly in the following weeks. Oil refinery along with manufacturing activities in the Chinese mainland have picked up significantly during the past months since COVID 19 restrictions were lifted and the demand for WTI has risen correspondingly. It is estimated that Chinese state-owned oil firms have already reserved tankers carrying an amount nearby 20 million barrels of U.S. crude for August and September. The Chinese demand for US Crude Oil is a move that tends to support the relationship of the two largest economies of the world, especially as tensions between Washington and Beijing have risen lately. Also in the past week the U.S. Agriculture Department said that China had increased purchases off soybeans, sorghum and beef that equally support the US market. Can this be a strategic move from the Chinese to ease the tensions created recently? In any case, the Chinese are far from meeting their commitment of buying $36.5 billion worth of U.S. agricultural goods under a Phase 1 deal so they will need to intensify their purchases even as the pre pandemic demand may have not been reached yet. WTI has remained steady nearby $42 per barrel in the past couple of weeks as global demand has not returned yet. However, the news could support Oil prices especially as stockpiles have been reduced in August.

Looking at the chart from a monthly perspective the commodity has moved higher in all months since May 2020. For this reason we have evidence to support a bullish outlook. At the moment WTI is trading nearby 42.60 per barrel. If the commodity is to move even higher it could initially come across and test the (R1) 43.45 level that was last reached on the 5th of August but not breached. The levels that could be the next targets if WTI continues to move even higher are the (R2) 46.20 line and the (R3) 48.50 hurdle. In the opposite direction, a possible move lower could send the commodity down to the (S1) 41.30 level last seen on the 7th of August. Yet, if WTI is to head even lower than the (S2) 39.50 level last seen on the 30th of July could come into play. In our opinion, a breach below the (S2) line would signal a change in our outlook to a bearish one and it could lead the commodity even lower to our (S3) 37.25 line. The RSI indicator below our chart has stabilized nearby the 60 level possibly implying the bulls are in control for the time being.

Gold’s price continues to weaken

During the past week the precious metal performed one of its strongest selling momentums in 2020. In our view, the correction lower for the precious metal was unavoidable after it had moved higher for 9 consecutive weeks and managed to surpass previous all-time high levels. Other analysts believe Gold could regain upward momentum as the US stimulus package is still pending and chaos around the upcoming US elections is imminent. In today’s Asia session Gold’s price continued to weaken along with other precious metals like Silver.

XAU/USD is currently trading nearby $1945. In case of an upward movement the precious metal could initially meet the (R1) 1950 level that was tested in today’s Asian session but not breached. Even higher the next stops could be the (R2) 1970.00 line and then the (R3) 1990.00 level. In the opposite direction the shiny metal could fall towards the (S1) 1930.00 support level that was also briefly reached in today’s Asian session but was not broken. Yet if the selling momentum persists then the (S2) 1912 hurdle could be next as it was last seen on the overlap from the US to the Asian session on the 12th to the 13th. Even lower the (S3) 1890 could also become a target if the selling continues even further.

Other economic highlights today and early tomorrow

Today during the European session, we get Eurozone’s Reserve Assets Total for July. In the American session we get from the US the NY Fed Manufacturing for August. Also note today EU-UK Brexit talks are to restart. In the Asian session tomorrow we get the Australian RBA minutes.

WTI 4H Chart