논평을 통해 매수매도 방향을 잡아 보세요.

등록하기

US March employment data to move the markets

In the shadow of Trump’s tariffs announcement, the USD tumbled against its counterparts yesterday and markets today may turn their attention to the release of March’s US employment report. The Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) figure is expected to drop further reaching 135k if compared to February’s 151k, while the unemployment rate is expected to remain unchanged at 4.1% and the average earnings growth rate to slow down marginally reaching 3.9%yy. Should the actual rates and figures meet their respective forecasts, we may see the USD renewing its downward motion as all indicators align in pointing a possibly weakening US employment market. Overall given the persistence of inflationary pressures as expressed by the acceleration of the Core PCE rate for February, further easing of the US employment market may renew the market’s expectations for the Fed to cut rates yet Trump’s tariffs are expected to enhance inflationary pressures in the US economy. The actual rates and figures rarely meet their forecasts and should the US employment data for March imply a tighter-than-expected US employment market we may see the USD getting some support as it would enhance the Fed’s doubts for further easing of its monetary policy. 

EUR/USD rallied yesterday breaking the 1.0940 (R1) resistance line, now turned to support. We adopt a bullish outlook, as the price action was able to form a new higher peak. We intend to keep our bullish outlook as long as the upward trendline remains intact yet we are worried that the pair’s bulls may have reached beyond their grasp. It’s characteristic that the RSI indicator surged above the reading of 70, implying a strong bullish sentiment of the market for the pair, yet at the same time may also imply that the pair is at overbought levels and may be ripe for a correction lower. Similar signals are being send by the price action breaching above the upper Bollinger band. Hence we adopt the bullish outlook yet also issue a warning for a possible correction lower. Should the bulls remain dominant as expected, we may see the pair nearing if not breaching the 1.1210 (R1) line, while even higher we note the 1.1480 (R2) resistance level. Should the bears take over we may see the pair reversing course, breaking the 1.0940 (S1) line, continuing lower to break the prementioned upward trendline in a first signal that the upward motion of the pair has bee interrupted and continue to drop below the 1.0730 (S2) support level, making a bearish outlook currently very remote.     

At the same time as the US employment report for March, we also get Canada’s employment data for the same month. The unemployment rate is expected to tick up to 6.7% if compared to February’s 6.6% and the employment change figure is expected to rise to 10.0k if compared to February’s disappointing 1.1k. Overall, we are getting some mixed signals from the forecasts, yet the Canadian employment market seems to remain loose, which in turn may enhance BoC’s dovishness thus weakening the Loonie.

USD/CAD tumbled yesterday testing the 1.4100 (S1) support line. We are not convinced for the pair’s bearish tendencies yet however we have to note that the RSI indicator dropped considerably implying an enhancement of the bearish sentiment, while the price action has dropped below the lower Bollinger band implying that oversold conditions apply and that the pair may be ripe for a correction higher. For the adoption of a bearish outlook we would require the pair to break the 1.4100 (S1) support line clearly and start aiming for the 1.3945 (S2) support level. For a bullish outlook, we would require the pair to rise, break the 1.4280 (R1) resistance line and continue to break also the 1.4465 (R2) resistance level, thus is currently remote. 

금일 주요 경제뉴스

Today we get Germany’s industrial output for February, Sweden’s and the Czech Republic’s preliminary CPI rates for March, Euro Zone’s and the UK’s construction PMI figures for March, while on the monetary front we highlight the speech of Fed Chairman Powell and note that also Fed Governor Barr is scheduled to speak. On Monday’s Asian session, we get Australia’s consumer confidence for April.

EUR/USD Daily Chart

support at one point zero nine four and  resistance at one point zero one two one, direction upwards
  • Support: 1.0940 (S1), 1.0730 (S2), 1.0530 (S3)
  • Resistance: 1.1210 (R1), 1.1480 (R2), 1.1690 (R3)

USD/CAD Daily Chart

support at one point four one and  resistance at one point four two eight, direction sideways
  • Support: 1.4100 (S1), 1.3945 (S2), 1.3815 (S3)
  • Resistance: 1.4280 (R1), 1.4465 (R2), 1.4665 (R3)

이 기사와 관련된 일반적인 질문이나 의견이 있으시면 저희 연구팀으로 직접 이메일을 보내주십시오 research_team@ironfx.com

면책 조항:
본 자료는 투자 권유가 아니며 정보 전달의 목적이므로 참조만 하시기 바랍니다. IronFX는 본 자료 내에서 제 3자가 이용하거나 링크를 연결한 데이터 또는 정보에 대해 책임이 없습니다.

뉴스레터에 가입하세요
[gravityform id="4" title="false" ajax="true"]
귀하의 이메일은 마케팅 목적으로만 사용됩니다. 자세한 내용은 다음을 참조하십시오. 개인 정보 보호 정책
공유:
Home Forex blog US March employment data to move the markets
Affiliate World
Global
아랍에미리트 두바이
28 February – 1 March 2022

IronFX Affiliates

iFX EXPO Dubai

22-24 February 2022

Dubai World Trade Center

Meet us there!

Iron 월드 챔피언십

그랜드 피날레

총 우승상금*

*약관 적용.

iron-world
iron-world

아이언 월드

11월 16일 – 12월 16일

최소 입금액 $5,000

모든 거래는 리스크를 수반하며,
자본 전액 손실 가능성이 있습니다.

Iron 월드 챔피언십

one-million

총 우승상금*

planet-usd-thunder
planet-usd-thunder

티타니아 월드

10월 15일 – 11월 15일

최소 입금액 $3,000

이용약관* 적용 모든 거래는 리스크를 수반하며 심각한 자산 손실을 초래할 수 있습니다.

Iron 월드 챔피언십

one-million

총 우승상금*

elements-desktop
elements-mobile

Tantalum 월드

9월 14일~10월 14일

최소 증거금: $500

이용약관* 적용 모든 거래는 리스크를 수반하며 심각한 자산 손실을 초래할 수 있습니다.

IronFX 를 방문해 주심에 감사드립니다

이 웹사이트는 EU 거주민을 대상으로 하지 않으며 유럽 및 MiFID II 규제를 비롯한 영국 FCA(금융감독청) 핸드북에 규정된 규칙, 가이던스, 보호 범위 밖에 있습니다.

계속 진행할지 알려주십시오.

IronFX 를 방문해 주심에 감사드립니다

이 웹사이트는 EU 거주민을 대상으로 하지 않으며 유럽 및 MiFID II 규제 범위 밖에 있습니다.
그래도 IronFX으로 계속 진행하려면 아래를 클릭하십시오.

Iron 월드 챔피언십

one-million

총 우승상금*

3차 예선

14 August - 13 September

최소 증거금: $500

이용약관* 적용 모든 거래는 리스크를 수반하며 심각한 자산 손실을 초래할 수 있습니다.