Trump to impose 25% tariffs on US steel, aluminum imports

The USD strengthened against its counterparts on Friday and during today’s Asian session. We make a start with the release of the US employment report for January which sent out mixed signals. On the one hand, the NFP figure dropped beyond expectations disappointing traders, yet at the same time, the unemployment rate unexpectedly ticked down underscoring that the US employment market remains tight. The release tended to weigh a bit on the USD at the time of the release, yet the surprise came in on a fundamental level, as Trump announced that he intends to impose 25% tariffs on all US steel and aluminum imports possibly by Wednesday. The news rattled the markets creating substantial support for the greenback. Indicative of the uncertainty in the markets, we highlight the parallel rise of gold’s price which is now nearing the record high level of $2900/ounce. On a technical level, we tend to maintain our bullish outlook of the pair as long as the upward trendline initiated at the end 24. Also we note that the RSI indicator remains above the reading of 70, implying a strong bullish sentiment among market participants, yet at the same time may also imply that the precious metal’s price has reached overbought levels and is ripe for a correction lower. Similar signals come out of the fact that gold’s price is constantly flirting with the upper Bollinger band. Should the bulls maintain control as expected, we may see gold’s price breaking the 2900 (R1) resistance line, with the next target for the bulls being set at the 3000 (R2) resistance level. A bearish outlook currently seems remote and for it to be adopted we would require gold’s price to fall, breaking the 2790 (S1) support line continue to break the prementioned downward trendline in a first signal that the upward motion has been interrupted and continue lower to aim for the 2685 (S2) support level.

We expect the tariffs to provide support for the USD, while at the same time could weigh among other riskier assets, on the Loonie as Canada is one of the main exporters of aluminum to the US. Please note that Canada’s January employment data, released on Friday, tended to imply a tighter-than-expected Canadian employment market last month.

In the FX market, USD/CAD edged higher during today’s Asian session, yet remained near the 1.4200 (S1) support line. We tend to maintain our bias for the pair’s sideways motion to continue for the time being. We also note that the RSI indicator remained close to the reading of 50, implying a relatively indecisive market for the pair. Should the bulls lead the pair higher, we may see the pair breaking the 1.4465 (R1) resistance line and start aiming for the 1.4665 (R2) resistance hurdle. For the adoption of a bearish outlook, we would require the pair to break the 1.4280 (S1) support level and start aiming for the 1.4100 (S2) support base.

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Today we note the release of Norway’s CPI rates for January and Euro Zone’s Sentix index for February, while later on ECB Board Member Schnabel and BoE MPC member Mann are scheduled to speak. We tend to focus on BoE’s Catherine Mann a former hawk, who leaned in favour of a 50 basis points rate cut in the last BoE meeting and her comments could weigh on the pound. In tomorrow’s Asian session, we get from Australia the Consumer sentiment for February, and January’s NAB Business conditions and Business confidence.

As for the rest of the week:

On Tuesday we get Canada’s December Building Permits for January. On Wednesday we highlight the release of the CPI rates for January and Fed Chairman Powell’s testimony before the US Congress. Tomorrow, we get Japan’s corporate goods price rates for January, UK’s GDP rates for Q4, Switzerland’s CPI rates for January, and from the US the weekly initial jobless claims figure and the PPI rates for January. On Friday we get Euro Zone’s revised GDP rate for Q4, the US retail sales for January, Canada’s December manufacturing sales and the US industrial output for January.