Trade wars in full swing

US President Trump went through with the imposition of a 25% tariff on imports from Mexico and Canada on Tuesday, alongside increasing fresh duties on Chinese goods. The implementation of tariffs appears to have led to retaliatory measures from Canada, with Prime Minister Trudeau announcing retaliatory tariffs on US exports. In turn this may increase market worries, as the spat between the two countries continues to escalate with Trump responding on a TruthSocial post that “Please explain to Governor Trudeau, of Canada, that when he puts on a Retaliatory Tariff on the U.S., our Reciprocal Tariff will immediately increase by a like amount!”, implying that the trade war may continue to escalate. In turn the continuation and escalation of a trade war between the US and Canada could raise concerns over the resiliency of the US economy. Over in Europe, the leader of the CDU/CSU Friedrich Merz, who is Chancellor-in-waiting stated per a Bloomberg report that Germany would be looking to amend the constitution in order to exempt defence and security outlays from limits on fiscal spending. Moreover, he stated that they are planning a €500 billion infrastructure fund. The possibility of an increase in spending by the German Government which in turn could boost the nation’s economy, could also aid the EUR. However, in order to amend the constitution the incoming German Government would require the support of another party and thus, Merz’s ambitions may simply be ambitions. In terms on key financial releases today, we would like to note the release of the ADP national employment figure which is set to be released later on today.

WTICash appears to be moving in a downwards fashion, with the commodity having tested our 66.60 (S1) support level. We opt for a bearish outlook for the commodity’s price and supporting our case is the RSI indicator below our chart which currently registers a figure close to 40, implying a bearish market sentiment. For our bearish outlook to continue, we would require a break below our 66.60 (S1) support level, with the next possible target for the bears being the 61.75 (S2) support line. On the flip side for a sideways bias we would require the commodity’s price to remain confined between the 66.60 (S1) support level and the 70.40 (R1) resistance line. Lastly, for a bullish outlook we would require a clear break above the 70.40 (R1) resistance line, with the next possible target for the bulls being the 74.15 (R2) resistance level.

USD/JPY appears to be moving in a downwards fashion, with the pair piercing our 148.65 (S1) support level. We opt for a bearish outlook for the pair and supporting our case is the RSI indicator which currently registers a figure close to 40, implying a bearish market sentiment. For our bearish outlook to continue we would require a clear break below the 148.65 (S1) support level, with the next possible target for the bears being the 146.00 (S2) support line. On the other hand, for a sideways bias we would require the pair to remain confined between the 148.65 (S1) support level and the 151.40 (R1) resistance line. Lastly, for a bullish outlook we would require a clear break above the 151.40 (R1) resistance line with the next possible target for the bulls being the 154.30 (R2) resistance level.

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Today we get Switzerland’s CPI rate, the Czech Republic’s preliminary CPI rate, France’s final services PMI figure, the Eurozone’s final composite PMI figure, the UK’s services PMI figure, the ADP national employment figure and the US final S&P services PMI all for the month of February followed by the US Factory orders rate for January, the ISM non-manufacturing PMI figure for February and the weekly EIA crude oil inventories figure. In tomorrow’s Asian session, we note Australia’s building approvals rate and trade balance data both for the month of January and Switzerland’s unemployment rate for February. On a monetary level we highlight the speech by BoE Governor Bailey and the release of the Fed’s Beige book.