The US versus its trading partners

The President of the United States of America has announced his reciprocal tariffs on the US’s trading partners. According to a statement by the White House the US has announced an “additional ad valorem duty on all imports from all trading partners shall start at 10 percent and shortly thereafter, the additional ad valorem duty shall increase for trading partners enumerated in Annex I”. In ‘Annex 1’ the reciprocal tariff will be 20% on the EU and 34% on China, with CNBC reporting that the White House clarified that the tariff rate on Beijing comes in addition to the existing 20% tariff on Chinese imports, which would mean the true rate on Chinese imports will rise to 54%. The announcement has received condemnation as was expected by the US’s trade partners and in particular EU Commission President Ursula Von Der Leyen who stated per POLITICO that the EU was “prepared to respond”, moreover she stated that “We are already finalizing the first package of countermeasures in response to tariffs on steel, and we are now preparing for further countermeasures”. Furthermore, China has stated that “China firmly opposes this and will resolutely take countermeasures to safeguard its own rights and interests”, implying that China may be preparing to retaliate against the US as well. In our view the trade wars have officially kicked off and we would not be surprised to see tit-for-tat retaliatory measures from various nations. In turn the scenario may aid gold’s price as uncertainty may funnel safe haven inflows into the precious metal. On a commodity level, OPEC is set to meet later on today and any announcement could influence the price of oil.

XAU/USD appears to be moving in an upwards fashion. We opt for a bullish outlook for gold’s price and aiding our hypothesis is the upwards moving trendline as seen on our chart, in addition to the RSI indicator which currently registers a figure above 70, implying a strong bullish market sentiment. Yet the RSI indicator’s figure also implies that the precious metal may be currently overbought and due a correction to lower ground. Nonetheless, for our bullish outlook to continue we would require a clear break above the 3150 (R1) resistance line with the next possible target for the bulls being the 3250 (R2) resistance level. On the other hand, for a sideways bias we would require gold’s price to remain confined between our 3050 (S1) support line and the 3150 (R1) resistance level. Lastly, for a bearish outlook we would require a clear break below the 3050 (S1) support level with the next possible target for the bulls being the 2950 (S2) support line.

WTICash appears to have moved back below the 70.40 (R1) resistance line. We opt for a sideways bias for the pair and supporting our case is the RSI indicator below our chart which currently registers a figure of 50 which tends to imply a neutral market sentiment. For our sideways bias to be maintained we would require the pair to remain confined between the 66.05 (S1) support level and the 70.40 (R1) resistance line. On the flip side for a bearish outlook, we would require a clear break below the 66.05 (S1) support line, with the next possible target for the bears being the 61.75 (S2) support level. Lastly, for a bullish outlook we would require a clear break above the 70.40 (R1) resistance level with the next possible target for the bulls being the 74.15 (R2) resistance line.

금일 주요 경제뉴스

Today we get Switzerland’s and Turkey’s CPI rates for March, followed by the US weekly initial jobless claims figure, Canada’s trade data for February, the US ISM non-manufacturing PMI figure for March and the Atlanta FedGDPNow preliminary rate for Q1. In tomorrow’s Asian session we note Japan’s household spending rate for February and Switzerland’s unemployment rate for March. On a monetary level we note OPEC’s meeting, the speeches by Riksbank Governor Theeden and ECB Schnabel followed by the release of the ECB’s last meeting minutes, and the speeches later on in the day by Fed Vice Chair Jefferson and Fed Governor Cook. Lastly in tomorrow’s Asian session we get the speech by Fed Governor Barr.