European data and Canada’s retail sales in sight

In a relatively quiet Thursday, given the Thanksgiving holiday in the US, the greenback tended to remain relatively unchanged against its counterparts. Despite opening today, we expect the markets to be again rather quiet, as traders may opt to bridge the holiday with the weekend and Black Friday. Nevertheless, in the American session, we note the release of the US preliminary S&P PMI figures for November and should a contraction of economic activity be reported it could weaken the USD. We also note Canada’s retail sales for September and a possible improvement could provide some support for the Loonie. Loonie traders though are also expected to keep an eye out for oil prices.

Should we compare the two currencies on a technical level, we would not that USD/CAD seems to be hitting a floor at the 1.3690 (S1) support line. Yet the downward channel driving the pair since the 16 of November, seems to insist despite a break of its upper boundary on the 22^nd of the month. The RSI indicator remains near the reading of 50, implying a rather indecisive market, which could allow the pair to stabilise further. For a bearish outlook we would require a clear break of the 1.3690 (S1) support line and USD/CAD to start actively aiming for the 1.3570 (S2) support level. Should on the other hand the bulls take over, we may see the pair breaking the upper boundary of the downward channel, and aim if not breach the 1.3800 (R1) line.

Across the Atlantic, the Eurozone is ablaze. On a political level, yesterday’s riots in Dublin and the recent Dutch elections highlighted the deep rift among Europeans about immigration once again an issue that is tantalizing the Eurozone on a political level. For the time being we expect no major market reaction on the issue. On a monetary level, we note that the minutes of ECB’s October meeting showed a hawkish predisposition of the bank’s policymakers, with some not being quite convinced that another rate hike is not necessary. Despite BuBa President Nagel’s comments, mentioned in yesterday’s report, we note also France’s central Bank Governor Villeroy de Galhau who stated yesterday that the ECB is not to hike rates again should there be no surprises. We expect the statements of ECB President Christine Lagarde and vice President De Guindos to shed more light on the bank’s intentions later today. Should there be more cautiousness in their comments and should the two imply that the bank has reached its terminal rate we may see the EUR slipping a bit. Yet at the same time, it seems that worries of ECB policymakers about the economic outlook of the Eurozone were extensive. But on a macroeconomic level, there seems to be a ray of hope, as Eurozone’s November preliminary PMI figures, despite implying another contraction of economic activity the situation is slightly improving and the relevant indicators seem to be bottoming out. We expect EUR traders today to keep a close eye on the German data today given that Germany’s economy is among the main worries of analysts and a possible improvement of the readings could support EUR somewhat.

EUR/USD remained little changed yesterday remaining in a tight sideways motion between the 1.0940 (R1) resistance line and the 1.0835 (S1) support line. We tend to maintain a bias for the sideways motion to continue given also that the RSI indicator runs along the reading of 50 implying a rather neutral position of the market. Furthermore, we note that the Bollinger bands have narrowed reflecting the lower volatility of the pair, which in turn may allow the sideways motion to be maintained. For a bullish outlook we would require the pair to break the 1.0940 (R1) line and aim for the 1.1065 (R2) barrier. Should the bears take over, we may see EUR/USD breaking the upward trendline guiding the pair in a first signal that the upward motion has been interrupted, break the 1.0835 (S1) support line and start aiming for the 1.0735 (S1) level.