Stimulus hopes seem to revive markets, weaken USD

The USD weakened against some of its counterparts yesterday as renewed stimulus hopes steered investors to a more risk on approach and supported the US stock markets after their drop on Tuesday. After President Trump called off the negotiations for a fiscal stimulus, he tweeted implying that he would be open in a piecemeal approach for fiscal stimulus, targeting industries such as airlines, small businesses and consumers. Also, the fact that Joe Biden seems to be maintaining his lead over President Trump could increase hopes for a stimulus bill as well. Analysts tend to underscore that the markets grew tiresome of the negotiations for the fiscal stimulus and the absence of any negative news may have allowed stock markets to rally. On the monetary front, the release of the FOMC’s last meeting minutes provided little new, while a number of Fed’s policymakers in their speeches yesterday reiterated the need for a fiscal stimulus package in order to speed up the recovery of the US economy. We could see fundamentals continue to drive the markets, yet at the same time we highlight the release of the US weekly initial jobless claims figure later today.
S&P 500 rose yesterday testing the 3425 (R1) resistance line. As the index’s price actions follows the upward trendline incepted since the 24th of September, we tend to maintain a bullish outlook. Should the bulls maintain controls over the index’s direction, we could see it clearly breaking the 3425 (R1) resistance line and aim for the 3485 (R2) level. Should the bears take over, we could see the index aiming if not breaking the 3350 (S1) line which reversed the index’s drop on Tuesday.

CAD strengthens as risk environment improves

CAD strengthened against the USD yesterday as the risk on approach of the markets allowed the Loonie to regain most of the losses made in the past days. It should be noted that WTI prices tended to remain steady, above $40 per barrel which could be on the positives for the Loonie. CAD traders today could be interested in BoC governor Tiff Macklem’s speech later today and we would not be surprised to hear the governor reiterating the need for a fiscal stimulus in order for the Canadian economy’s recovery to pick up pace. Also OPEC is to release 2020 OPEC World Oil Outlook and any volatility in oil prices could also affect the CAD indirectly, while CAD traders could also be interested in the release of Canada’s House starts for September today, yet the main release is expected to be the employment data for September tomorrow.
USD/CAD dropped after hitting a ceiling at the 1.3320 (R1) resistance line and is currently aiming for the 1.3200 (S1) support line. The bears seem to be guiding the pair and the RSI indicator below our 4 hour chart, seems to confirm their presence as its reading is aiming at the level of 30, albeit some stabilisation seems to be taking place. Should the pair remain under the selling interest of the market as expected, we could see it breaking the 1.3200 (S1) support line and aim for the 1.3105 (S2) level. On the flip side should the pair find fresh buying orders along its path, we could see it breaking the 1.3320 (R1) resistance line and aim for the 1.3400 (R2) level.

Other economic highlights today and early tomorrow

In the European session, we get Germany’s trade data for August as well as Norway’s GDP rates for August, while near the end of the European session, we get ECB minutes of its last meeting. In the American session, we get Canada’s number of house starts for September and the US weekly initial jobless claims figure. During the Asian session on Friday, we note the release of Japan’s household spending for August and China’s Caixin Services PMI for September, while RBA releases its financial stability review. As for speakers, a plethora of policymakers is scheduled to speak including ECB Board Member Schnabel, ECB Vice President De Guindos, SNB Chairman Thomas Jordan, ECB Board Member Mersch, BoC Governor Tiff Maclem, Boston Fed President Rosengren, Dallas Fed President Kaplan and Atlanta Fed President Bostic.