USD strengthens as Biden takes over

The USD strengthened against a number of its counterparts yesterday, as media reported that the Trump administration gave the green light for Biden to start the transition to the White House. The transition would provide to Joe Biden access to briefing and funding and President elect, Joe Biden has started naming members of his cabinet. Media report that Antony Blinken is to be named as new head of the State Department while also mention the possibility of former Fed Chair Janet Yellen be named head of the Treasury department. It should be noted that Ms. Yellen in the near past had expressed opinions in favour of increased fiscal spending to boost the US economy and has often mentioned that growing economic inequality in the US is a threat to its values and future. The prospect of the higher fiscal spending in combination with the possibility of the Fed’s programs returning in full force after the Trump administration ends, could boost market sentiment intensifying a risk on approach by the markets, while on the flip side, the path of the pandemic may curb the market’s optimism.
USD/JPY jumped yesterday breaking the 104.10 resistance line, now turned to support. The pair seems to have abandoned its sideways motion in favour of a bullish movement. Please note though that the RSI indicator below our 4-hour chart, is nearing the reading of 70, confirming the dominance of the bulls, yet at the same time a correction lower could be in the cards for the pair. Should the bulls maintain the initiative we could see USD/JPY aiming if not breaking the 105.30 (R1) resistance line . Should the bears be in charge of USD/JPY’s direction, we could see it breaking the 104.10 (S1) support line and aim for the 103.10 (S2) level.

GBP strengthens on vaccine and Brexit hopes

The pound strengthened against the USD, EUR and JPY yesterday as hopes for a vaccine and possible Brexit deal seemed to be increased. It was reported that Astra-Zeneca’s vaccine was 70% effective in pivotal trials and could be up to 90% effective, boosting market sentiment. It should be noted that UK’s PM Johnson eased England’s lockdown measures for the Christmas period, while finance minister Sunak is expected to announce increased fiscal spending tomorrow. The UK and the EU are to continue their negotiations this week, in order to agree a deal on their post Brexit trading relationship, though the clock is ticking, and the pressure is rising for a deal, as UK’s post-Brexit transition period ends in fewer than six weeks. We expect that the prementioned three fundamental issues to be the main drivers for the pound given the absence of any high impact UK financial releases.
GBP/USD rose yesterday and despite a correction lower, managed to remain above the 1.3285 (S1) resistance line, now turned to support. We maintain a bullish outlook for the pair as long as it remains above the upward trendline incepted since the 19th of the month. Should the pair’s buying momentum persist, we could see cable breaking the 1.3375 (R1) resistance line and aim for the 1.3470 (R2) level. Should the pair come under the selling interest of the market, we could see GBP/USD breaking the prementioned upward trendline, the 1.3285 (S1) line and aim for the 1.3210 (S2) support level.

Other economic highlights today and early tomorrow

Today in the European session, we highlight the release of the Germany’s Ifo indicators for November, Germany’s detailed GDP rate for Q3 and France’s Business Climate for November. In the American session, we get the US consumer sentiment for November and just before the Asian session starts, we get from the US the weekly API crude oil inventories for last week. Also note that BoE’s Haskel, BoJ Governor Haruhiko Kuroda, St. Luis Fed President Bullard, ECB President Christine Lagarde, NY Fed President Williams, ECB board Lane, Fed’s Vice Chair Clarida and RBNZ Governor Adrian Orr speak.