USD steadies during the holidays

The USD remained relatively steady against most of its counterparts yesterday, as US markets were closed for Thanksgiving in the US, as noted yesterday. Analysts tend to expect that also today low volatility and thin trading conditions may apply, as the US is in an extended weekend. Some analysts note that there may be some month end selling pressure. Across the Atlantic the common currency tended to gain slightly against the USD and GBP and at lost some ground against JPY and CHF. ECB’s minutes of the October meeting were released yesterday and had a dovish tone. The minutes showed that policymakers were on guard, given the second wave of the pandemic and laid ground for more stimulus to come for the area’s economy. ECB’s chief economist Philip Lane stated that enduring “a longer phase of even lower inflation” would hurt consumption and investment as well as cementing expectations for low price growth in the future, as reported by Reuters. We expect that volatility is to remain low, yet EUR traders could also be focusing on today’s financial releases. EUR/USD remained relatively unchanged yesterday around the 1.1910 (S1) line. We tend to expect the pair to maintain its sideways motion currently. Yet it should be noted that the pair’s RSI indicator below our 4-hour chart seem to be reminding us of the presence of the bears as it is above the reading of 50 and aiming upwards. Should the pair find extensive fresh buying orders along its path, we could see it aiming if not breaking the 1.1965 (R1) line which hasn’t seen any price action since the 1st of September. If a selling interest is displayed, we could see EUR/USD breaking the 1.1910 (S1) line and aim for the 1.1850 (S2) level.

Brexit starts to weigh on the pound

The GBP retreated slightly against the USD, EUR, JPY and CHF yesterday as the Brexit negotiations seem to be weighing on the pound. The negotiations between the EU and the UK about their post Brexit trade relationship seem to be dragging on, as EU negotiators seem to prepare for another round of talks in London. Despite considerable progress being achieved, the risk of the UK crashing out of the EU without a trade deal in hand, by the end of the year persists. Reuters reported that UK’s access to EU financial markets ends on December 31st and arrangements will be ready after January 1st, increasing risk. On a positive note UK’s finance minister Sunak stated that he was optimistic for deal being possible, yet that remains to be seen. We maintain as our base scenario that a deal, or a partial deal, may be possible before year’s end. Yet as the stakes and uncertainty are still high, and the clock is ticking the issue becomes more and more detrimental for the GBP as it drags on. GBP traders could be to be closely watching any Brexit developments, as well as the path of the pandemic in the UK, for GBP’s direction.
GBP/USD dropped slightly yesterday, breaking the 1.3375 (R1) support line, now turned to resistance. As the pair broke the upward trendline incepted since the 19th of November, we switch our bullish bias in favour of a sideways movement, initially. Should the bears take the initiative over cable’s prices, we could see it aiming if not breaking the 1.3285 (S1) support line, on its journey southwards. Should the bulls take over, we could see the pair breaking the 1.3375 (R1) resistance line and aim for the 1.3470 (R2) level.

Other economic highlights today and early tomorrow

In a slow Friday, we focus mostly in the European session, during which we get France’s final GDP rate for Q3, as well as the preliminary CPI (EU Normalised) rate for November. Also, during the European session, we highlight Eurozone’s economic sentiment indicator for November, as well as Eurozone’s final consumer confidence reading for November. During Monday’s Asian session, we note the release of Japan’s industrial output growth rate for October, as well as China’s National Bureau of Statistics PMIs for November, with the heavyweight being the manufacturing sector’s reading. As for speakers please note that BoE’s Tenreyro is scheduled to speak.