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The US has announced that it will be making a decision within the next two weeks as to whether the US will be joining Israel in its war against Iran. The arbitrary two-week deadline the President has stated, is yet another indication that the US is seriously considering a strike against Iran, as the narrative has continued to shift from no involvement to possibly being dragged into another war in the Middle East. Nevertheless, should the US get involved in the ongoing Israel-Iran war it could drag other regional players into the fight and may raise significant concerns over one of the most vital oil arteries in the world. In turn supply chain concerns may aid the price oil. However, in the same message the President also said per Bloomberg that “Based on the fact that there’s a substantial chance of negotiations that may or may not take place with Iran in the near future, ” which may imply negotiations with Iran are underway, thus a possible diplomatic solution may alleviate our aforementioned concerns which in turn may weigh on oil prices.Over in the UK, the BoE’s interest rate decision occurred yesterday, with the bank remaining on hold as was widely expected by market participants. However, interestingly three members voted for a rate cut instead of the anticipated two , which could imply that the balance of power is shifting in the direction of the “doves” within the Bank of England and could thus may on the pound.In Japan, the nation’s National Core CPI rates for May came in hotter than expected at 3.7% versus 3.6% showcasing an acceleration of inflationary pressures in the Japanese economy. In turn, the hotter-than-expected inflation print may refuel hopes that the BOJ may resume its rate hiking path and thus could aid the JPY.
EUR/USD appears to be moving in a sideways fashion, following the break below our upwards moving trendline and its retracement to our 1.1445 (S1) support level. However, we should note that the RSI indicator below our chart currently registers a figure near 60 implying a bullish market sentiment. Nonetheless, for our sideways bias to be maintained we would require the pair to remain confined between 1.1445 (S1) support level our 1.1685 (R1) resistance level. On the other hand for a bullish outlook we would require a clear break above the 1.1685 (R1) resistance level with the next possible target for the bulls being the 1.1885 (R2) resistance line. Lastly, for a bearish outlook we would require a clear break below our 1.1445 (S1) support level with the next possible target for the bears being the 1.1185 (S2) support line.
XAU/USD appears to be moving in a predominantly sideways bias following the break below our support now turned to resistance line at the 3385 (R1) level. We opt for a sideways bias for gold’s price and supporting our case is the RSI indicator below our chart which currently registers a figure near 50, implying a neutral market sentiment. For our sideways bias to be maintained we would require the pair to remain confined between the 3240 (S1) support line and the 3385 (R1) resistance level. On the other hand, for a bearish outlook we would require a break below the 3240 (S1) support level with the next possible target for the bears being the 3115 (S2) support level. Lastly, for a bullish outlook we would require a clear break above the 3385 (R1) resistance line with the next possible target for the bulls being the 3500 (R2) resistance level.
Other highlights for the day:
Today we get Germany’s producer prices for May, UK’s retail sales for the same month, France’s business climate for June, the US Philly Fed Business index also for June, Canada’s producer prices for May and retail sales for April as well as Euro Zone’s preliminary consumer confidence for June. On a monetary level, we note BoJ Governor Kazuo Ueda’s speech. In Monday’s Asian session, we get June’s preliminary PMI figures of Australia and Japan.
EUR/USD Daily Chart
- Support: 1.1445 (S1), 1.1185 (S2), 1.0950 (S3)
- Resistance: 1.1685 (R1), 1.1885 (R2), 1.2070 (R3)
XAU/USD Daily Chart
- Support: 3240 (S1), 3115 (S2), 2980 (S3)
- Resistance: 3385 (R1), 3500 (R2), 3645 (R3)
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Disclaimer:
This information is not considered as investment advice or an investment recommendation, but instead a marketing communication. IronFX is not responsible for any data or information provided by third parties referenced, or hyperlinked, in this communication.
JA 
