{"id":115723,"date":"2025-07-01T16:40:35","date_gmt":"2025-07-01T13:40:35","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ironfx-com.wp-dev.int.theitops.net\/?p=115723"},"modified":"2025-07-01T16:40:36","modified_gmt":"2025-07-01T13:40:36","slug":"gold-outlook-us-employment-data-in-view","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.ironfxcn.com\/fr\/gold-outlook-us-employment-data-in-view\/","title":{"rendered":"Gold Outlook: US Employment data in view"},"content":{"rendered":"

Gold\u2019s price has moved lower since the beginning of the week<\/a>, also in today\u2019s report we are to have a look at the upcoming US Employment data, Trump\u2019s Big Beautiful bill, and the US tariff deadlines . For a rounder view we intend to conclude the report with a technical analysis of gold\u2019s daily chart.\u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n

US Employment data due out Thursday<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

The US Employment data for June is due to be released this Thursday and may garner significant attention from market participants. In particular, the non-farm payrolls figure is expected by economists to come in at 120k, which would be lower than the prior figure of 139k, and even more concerning is the expected uptick in the unemployment rate from 4.2% to 4.3%. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Moreover, the average hourly earnings rate on a month-on-month basis is expected to come in at 0.3% which would be lower than the prior rate of 0.4% Overall,\u00a0 the US employment data is expected by market participants to showcase a loosening labour market which could increase pressure on the Fed to resume on their rate cutting path, which could weigh on the dollar whilst aiding gold\u2019s price given their inverse relationship. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

In our view, the expected uptick in the unemployment rate may take on greater importance, considering it has remained at 4.2% since March.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Trump\u2019s Big Beautiful Bill faces key hurdles<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

President Trump\u2019s Big Beautiful Bill is facing staunch opposition in the Senate and apparently the House of Representatives, and with the self-imposed July 4\u00a0 <\/sup> deadline quickly approaching, it may require serious political maneuvering to get it passed into law on time. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Nonetheless, by the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office has estimated that the bill will increase the U.S debt by roughly $3.3 trillion, which could raise severe questions for the state of the US economy, which is still facing an ever-rising debt burden. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

In turn, the possibility of the US\u2019s debt burden further increasing, which in turn may result in increased concern over the state of the US economy down the line, may have provided some support for the precious metal\u2019s price.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Tariff deadline quickly approaching<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

The tariff deadline of July 9th is quickly approaching which would mark the expiration date of a 90-day reprieve of U.S tariffs which President Trump imposed on the 9th of April. The order temporarily reduced country-specific tariffs to 10 percent, whilst opening the door for the various Governments to conduct trade negotiations with the US. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, with the deadline fast approaching there is still a lot to be done and thus should a lack of progress be seen prior to the deadline, market worries about the global economy and a possible resurgence of inflation in the US economy may return. Therefore, given gold\u2019s status as a hedge against inflation, it may see inflows should the aforementioned worries resurface. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Whereas, should further trade deals be struck, market worries may ease which in turn could weigh on the price of the precious metal. In our view, the most crucial trade agreement is still the one with China, where the two nations agreed to \u201can additional understanding of a framework to implement the Geneva agreement\u201d. Nonetheless, a failure to reach a trade deal with crucial trading partners could aid gold\u2019s price and vice versa.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Gold Technical Analysis<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

XAUUSD 4H Chart<\/strong><\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n
\"EU\/USD<\/figure>\n\n\n\n