FOMC July meeting minutes due out today

During today’s early Asian session, the RBNZ maintain current interest levels, yet the bank re-iterated that core inflation is unacceptably high. In today’s American session, market participants may be eagerly awaiting the release of the FOMC July meeting minutes, following statements made by Minneapolis Fed President Kashkari yesterday that more rate hikes may be required, yet in our opinion we believe that some dovish chords were struck during his statements yesterday. The US Core Retails sales rate came in higher than expected during yesterday’s trading session, indicative of a resilient US economy despite the high interest rate levels imposed by the Fed. The Fitch Credit rating agency warns it may have to downgrade some US banks, potentially following the decision by Moody’s credit rating agency which downgraded 10 regional US banks last week. Canada’s Core CPI comes in higher than expected, implying that inflationary pressures still persist in the Canadian economy, with the door now open for a potential rate hike by the BoC in their next meeting. In the commodities market, gold edges closer and closer to the $1900 key psychological level whilst wheat continues its decline as various news outlets report that grain exports have continued as normal despite recent escalations in the black sea. In the equities markets, we note that Home Depot (#HD) beat market earnings expectations.

WTICash appears to be moving in a downwards fashion, with the commodity now appearing to have stalled near the $80 key psychological level. We maintain our bearish outlook and supporting our case is the RSI indicator below our 4-Hour Chart which currently registers a figure near 30, implying a strong bearish market sentiment. For our bearish outlook to continue, we would like to see a clear break below the 80.00 (S1) support level, with the next possible target for the bears being the 77.00 (S2) support level. On the other hand, for a bullish outlook we would like to see a clear break above the 81.75 (R1) resistance level, with the next possible target for the bulls being the 84.10 (R2) resistance ceiling.

XAU/USD appears to be moving in a downwards fashion, with the precious metal appearing to be aiming for the 1900 (S1) key psychological support level. We maintain a bearish outlook for the precious and supporting our case is the RSI indicator below our 4-Hour chart which is currently near the 30 figure, implying a bearish market sentiment, in addition to the downwards moving trendline incepted on the 31st of July and the downwards moving channel incepted on the 4th of August. For our bearish outlook to continue, we would like to see a clear break below the 1900 (S1) key psychological support level, with the next possible target for the bears being the 1865 (S2) support base. On the other hand, for a bullish outlook, we would like to see a clear break above the 1920 (R1) resistance level, with the next possible target for the bulls being the 1943 (R2) resistance level, which would coincide with a clear break above the downwards moving trendline and channel that were previously mentioned.

Autres faits marquants de la journée :

In today’s  European trading session, we note the UK’s CPI rates for July, the Eurozone’s preliminary GDP rates for Q2 and Industrial Production rates for June. In the American session we note the US Housing starts figure and Industrial Production rate both for the month of July. In tomorrow’s busy Asian session we make a start with Japan’s Machinery Orders rate for June, Exports rate and trade balance figure both for the month of July, followed by Australia’s Employment data for July. On a monetary note, the highlight of the day is set to be the release of the FOMC July meeting minutes during today’s late American trading session.

#WTICash H4 Chart

Support: 88.00 (S1), 77.00 (S2), 74.00 (S3)

Resistance: 81.75 (R1), 84.10 (R2), 86.90 (R3)

#XAU/USD H4 Chart

Support: 1900 (S1), 1865 (S2), 1830 (S3)

Resistance: 1920 (R1), 1943 (R2) 1971 (R3)

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