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The US dollar retreated yesterday but stayed relatively elevated however, in anticipation of the CPI rates due out on Wednesday. Since there are no major financial news releases today, the greenback is expected to remain calm, ahead of tomorrow’s inflation rates results, which according to estimates, the pace of price increases started to peak. We highlight though on the other hand the possibility of fundamentals leading the market sentiment in today’s European and American sessions given the prementioned absence of high impact financial releases. The US stock markets edged higher yesterday, as investors reassessed the outlook of monetary policy and today we would like to note besides the earnings releases due out, IBM’s dividend payout. WTI’s rose yesterday, moving towards the $90 barrel level, on news regarding the revival of the 2015 Iran nuclear accord and the European Union is awaiting approval from Washington and Tehran within a couple weeks. Should the deal be approved, then we could potentially set the stage for a boost in Iran’s oil exports by at least 1million barrels per day, however the approval seems unlikely. Furthermore, oil traders look forward for the US weekly API Crude oil stock figure later today providing a snapshot of the demand side of oil. Gold prices were on the rise yesterday, mainly due to the dollar’s underperformance and their negative correlation. Tomorrow’s CPI reports are of particular interest for gold traders as the precious metal is also used as an inflation hedging instrument. In today’s Asian session, we note the results of Australia’s NAB Business Confidence indicator which pointed to a particular notable strength in business sentiment as optimism rose and at the same time showed an improvement of the current conditions in the Australian economy in the month of July. On the other hand, we cannot contain our fundamental worries for the possibility of China proceeding with military action on the island of Taiwan. It’s characteristic that Taiwan’s foreign minister Wu warned earlier today in a press conference that “China has used the drills … to prepare for the invasion of Taiwan” according to Reuters and urged “international support to safeguard peace and stability across the Taiwan Strait”. It should be noted that Taiwan straits are of the busiest shipping routes worldwide and tensions could halt trading activities. We highlight the possible adverse risks for the Chinese economy of the matter, but also the closely linked Australian economy, as well as the outlook for global economy as a whole, given its severity.
L'action du prix de l'AUD/USD semble être confinée entre le niveau de soutien de 0,6860 (S2) et le niveau de résistance de 0,7030 (R1), avec 0,6960 (S1) agissant comme ligne médiane. Nous avons un biais latéral pour la paire, car l'indicateur RSI se trouve légèrement au-dessus de la ligne médiane de 50, ce qui montre l'indécision.
Si la paire trouve de nombreux ordres d'achat sur son chemin, nous pourrions assister à la cassure du niveau de résistance de 0,7030 (R1) et à un mouvement proche de la barrière de résistance de 0,7115 (R2). Si les intérêts de vente se multiplient, nous pourrions assister à la cassure du niveau de soutien de 0,6860 (S2) et à un mouvement vers la base de soutien de 0,6790 (S2).
Autres faits marquants de la journée :
Demain, au cours de la session asiatique, nous noterons la publication des prix des biens des entreprises au Japon pour le mois de juillet et les taux en glissement annuel des IPP et IPC en Chine, tous deux pour le mois de juillet.
Graphique de l’USD/JPY H4
Support: 133.60 (S1), 131.30 (S2), 130.40 (S3)
Resistance: 135.20 (R1), 136.70 (R2), 139.20 (R3)
Graphique de l’AUD/USD H4
Support: 0.6960 (S1), 0.6860 (S2), 0.6790 (S3)
Resistance: 0.7030 (R1), 0.7115 (R2), 0.7200 (R3)
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JA 
