USD wobbles as investor’s hopes rise

The USD wobbled near a 3-week low, against a number of counterparts as despite yesterday being on the retreat, during today’s Asian session it was able to recover a substantial part of the losses. Analysts tend to highlight that investors may be increasingly hoping for the possibility of a fiscal stimulus, intensifying safe haven outflows for the USD while at the same time pushing US stock markets higher as market confidence gets a boost. It should be noted that hopes seem to be on the rise despite House of Representatives speaker Pelosi rejected Trump’s latest pitch for a US$1.8 trillion stimulus bill. On the COVID 19 front, latest news have not been so bright given that J&J has temporarily halted its trials for a vaccine due to an unexplained illness to a participant, which served as a reminder for the markets that the path to a possible vaccine is not so straightforward. We expect that should market sentiment continue to be risk on, due to stimulus hopes, the USD could weaken further, while should market worries continue to dominate the market about the halting of J&J’s vaccine trials, the greenback could rise further.
USD Index maintained a wide sideways movement between the 93.40 (R1) and the 92.80 (S1) lines. We tend to maintain a bias for a sideways movement for the time being yet US fundamentals could affect the Index’s direction substantially as well as the US CPI release for September, due out today. Should the Index come under the selling interest of the market, we could see it breaking the 92.80 (S1) and aim for the 92.23 (S2) level. Should buyers be in control of the index’s direction, we could see it breaking the 93.40 (R1) line aiming for the 93.95 (R2) level.

Apple to unveil new iPhones

Today at 17:00 (GMT) Apple is holding a major event, where it is expected to reveal this year’s iPhone line-up and the launch is considered as an event more significant than others, as it is rumoured to reveal the first major exterior redesign (since 2018) for the new iPhone. Also the company could possibly release four separate devices, with a range of sizes and prices and some if not all, are to support 5G cellular networks. Analysts tend to note that the last time such extensive changes were made to the iPhone was in 2014. We expect the release to excite the public, followers and traders and in such a case, Apple’s stock-price could move higher, yet should the event disappoint, the opposite effect could take place. We expect the event to produce significant market moving effects for Apple’s stock price hence some caution is advisable.
Apple’s share price seems to have gotten a boost yesterday opening with a positive gap and breaking the 119 (S1) resistance line now turned to support. As the share’s price broke the upward boundary of its prior sideways motion, we tend to favour the possibility of a bullish outlook for Apple’s share price. Please note though that the RSI indicator under our 1 hour chart has clearly surpassed the reading of 70 which confirms the dominance of the bulls, yet may also imply that the share may have been overbought and the late session stabilization seems to underscore such a scenario. Should the bulls maintain control over the share’s price, we could see it breaking the 127 (R1) line, aiming for the 135 (R2) resistance level. Should the bears take over, we could see Apple’s share price breaking the 113 (S1) line and aim for the 110 (S2) level.

Other economic highlights today and early tomorrow

In the European session today, we get UK’s employment data for August, Germany’s final HICP rate for September, Sweden’s CPI rate for September and Germany’s ZEW economic indicators for October. In the American session, we highlight the US CPI rates for September while during Tuesday’s Asian session we note the release of Australia’s consumer Sentiment for October. As for speakers please note that Riksbank Governor Ingves, Richmond Fed President Barkin and San Francisco Fed President Daly ar escheduled to speak today.

USD Index 4 Hour Chart

Support: 92.80 (S1), 92.23 (S2), 91.75 (S3)

Resistance: 93.40 (R1), 93.95 (R2), 94.55 (R3)

AAPL 1 Hour Chart

Support: 119 (S1), 110 (S2), 103 (S3)

Resistance: 127 (R1), 135 (R2), 145 (R3)

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