RBNZ takes the markets by surprise

The USD continued to edge lower against its counterparts yesterday overall, weakening also from the dark clouds that have started to surround the US economy. It should be noted that Fed policymakers yesterday made statements that maintain the view that more rate hikes are needed despite some easing of inflationary pressures in the US economy, which may have an additional adverse effect on economic activity. The comments in conjunction with the JOLTS Job Openings for February dropping below 10 million and reaching levels not seen since May 2021 tended to weaken US stock markets that edged lower. Also, the market jitters were intensified by JP Morgan’s CEO Jamie Dimon, who stated that the banking crisis is still not over. On a fundamental level, we note that former US President Trump was officially charged for a hash money scheme before the 2016 elections, yet the overall issue despite being juicy does not seem to have a market effect. Gold’s price took advantage of the weakening USD and its price per ounce jumped over 45 dollars yesterday a move that if repeated today could bring near record high levels. On the commodities front, WTI’s price remained at relatively elevated levels, prevented to correct lower possibly also due to the surprise drawdown reported by API yesterday for last week, implying that the US oil market remains tight. In the FX market, we note that New Zealand’s RBNZ took the markets by surprise hiking rates by 50 basis points and its monetary policy tightening seems not to be over, as implied in a rather confident accompanying statement. In the European theatre, we note that investors seem to be placing some confidence in the UK economic outlook once again as the pound was supported yesterday despite some mixed signals from BoE policymakers. BoE’s Tenreyro yesterday sounded dovish as she stated “I expect that the high current level of Bank Rate will require an earlier and faster reversal, to avoid a significant inflation undershoot,” while in contrast BoE Chief Strategist, Pill stated that the bank needs to “see the job through” implying that more rate hikes may be required.

USD/JPY edged lower yesterday placing some distance between its price action and the 132.85 (R1) resistance line. Overall though the picture of a sideways motion does not seem to be altered yet for the pair. Some slight bearish sentiment may be present for the markets though as the RSI indicator is at the reading of 39. Hence we tend to maintain our bias for the sideways motion to continue, yet we note the possibility of bearish tendencies for the pair. Should the bears actually take over, we may see USD/JPY breaking the 129.75 (S1) support line and aim for the 127.55 (S2) support level. Should the bulls take over, we may see the pair breaking the 132.85 (R2) resistance line and aim for the 135.15 (R2) resistance level.

NZD/USD jumped during today’s Asian session, breaking the 0.6350 (R1) resistance line, yet quickly corrected below it once again. The pair seems to have started to form a series of higher peaks and higher troughs, while the market sentiment for the Kiwi seems to remain bullish, given that the RSI indicator is near yet just below the reading of 70, hence we tend to maintain a bullish outlook for the pair. Should the buying interest intensify, we may see the pair clearly breaking the 0.6350 (R1) resistance line and take aim of the 0.6465 (R2) resistance level. Should sellers be in charge of the pair’s direction, we may see NZD/USD reversing course and aiming if not breaking the 0.6205 (S1) support line.

دیگر نکات مهم امروز:

Today in the European session, we note the release of Germany’s industrial orders growth rate for February, Eurozone’s final Composite PMI figure for March and the UK’s final Services PMI figure for the same month. In the American session, we note from the US the release of the ADP National employment figure for March, and the ISM non-manufacturing PMI figure for the same month, while from Canada we get February’s trade data. Oil traders may be more interested in the release of the weekly EIA crude oil inventories figure. On the monetary front, please note that ECB Chief Economist Philip Lane is scheduled to speak. During tomorrow’s Asian session, we note the release of Australia’s trade data for February and China’s Caixin Services PMI figure for March.  

نمودار چهار ساعته دلار آمریکا / ین ژاپن

Support: 129.70 (S1), 127.55 (S2), 125.05 (S3)

Resistance: 132.35 (R1), 135.15 (R2), 137.90 (R3)

نمودار چهار ساعته دلار نیوزیلند / دلار آمریکا

Support: 0.6205 (S1), 0.6060 (S2), 0.5950 (S3)

Resistance: 0.6350 (R1), 0.6465 (R2), 0.6565 (R3)

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