US GDP rate in the epicenter

The USD tended to weaken slightly against its counterparts yesterday, yet the overall sideways motion of the USD Index seems to remain present as the US GDP rate for Q1 is due out today amidst market worries for a recession in the US economy. The rate is expected to slow down to 2.0% yoy if compared to Q4’s final rate of 2.6% yoy and should it slow down beyond market expectations we may see market worries for a recession in the US economy intensifying with possibly bearish effects on the USD and US stockmarkets, hence we would advise caution while trading at the time of the release. On the other hand, US stock markets seemed to be sending some mixed signals yesterday with Dow Jones and S&P 500 being in the reds clearly and Nasdaq remaining relatively unchanged. Meta (#FB) earnings report showed that the company was able to return to profitability after being in the reds for three consecutive quarters. It seems that the redundancies early in Q1, may have produced the desired cost-cutting effect boosting profitability. The company also reported lower revenue than the last quarter, yet still was higher than market expectations. Revenue is expected to improve in the next quarter, which was another optimistic note and the report may provide support to the share’s price. Today the highlight of earnings reports is expected to be Amazon (#AMZN) and it should be noted that the company announced a new round of layoffs this time of around 9000 employees, affecting HR and its cloud business while it may also be forced to recognise a union for the first time in the UK. We also note the releases of American Airlines, Deutsche Bank, Caterpillar (#CAT), Unilever, Mastercard (#MA), Snap, Intel (#INTC) and Harley Davidson (#HOG) among others. On the monetary front, we note that BoJ is to release its interest rate decision tomorrow and the bank is expected to remain on hold at -0.10% and keep its ultra-loose monetary policy settings in place. Should also a dovish forward guidance be included in the accompanying letter, we may see JPY slipping. It’s to be the first meeting of the bank under BoJ Governor Ueda and should the bank express the idea of future rate hikes, JPY could gain.

USD/JPY edged lower yesterday yet stayed within the boundaries set by the 132.85 (S1) and the 135.15 (R1) levels. Given the relative stability of the pair’s price action and that the RSI indicator remains just below the reading of 50 implying a rather indecisive market, we tend to maintain our bias for the sideways motion to continue for now. Should a selling interest emerge we may see USD/JPY breaking the 132.85 (S1) support line which would pave the way for the 130.50 (S2) support barrier. Should the pair find fresh buying orders along its path, we may see USD/JPY breaking the 135.15 (R1) resistance line and take aim at the 137.55 (R2) hurdle.

EUR/USD continued to be on the rise breaking once again the 1.1000 (S1) resistance line, now turned to support. We tend to maintain a bullish outlook for the pair as long as it remains above the upward trendline incepted since the 20  of March, while we note that the RSI indicator remains above the reading of 50. Should the bulls maintain control as expected we may see EUR/USD breaking the 1.1140 (R1) resistance line which may allow it to aim for the 1.1140 (R2) resistance level. Should the bears take over, we may see the pair reversing course breaking the prementioned upward trendline in a first sign of an interruption of the upward motion, breaking the 1.1000 (S1) support line, which may pave the way for the 1.0855 (S2) support level.

دیگر نکات مهم امروز:

During today’s European session, we note the release of Sweden’s preliminary GDP rate for Q1 as well as Eurozone’s Business Climate, Economic sentiment and final consumer confidence indicator for April. On the monetary front, we note release from Turkey of CBT’s interest rate decision, while the Lira has been on a weakening path since the start of the year against the EUR and USD. Should the bank remain on hold as expected, we may see the Lira’s bearish tendencies being enhanced. In the American session, we highlight the release of the US GDP Advance rate for Q1 and the weekly initial jobless claims figure. During tomorrow’s Asian session, we note the release from Japan of Tokyo’s CPI rates for April and we highlight BoJ’s interest rate decision, while from Australia we get the PPI rate for Q1.  

نمودار چهار ساعته دلار آمریکا / ین ژاپن

Support: 132.85 (S1), 130.50 (S2), 127.55 (S3)

Resistance: 135.15 (R1), 137.55 (R2), 140.65 (R3)

نماد چهار ساعته یورو به دلار امریکا

Support: 1.1000 (S1), 1.0855 (S2), 1.0695 (S3)

Resistance: 1.1140 (R1), 1.1270 (R2), 1.1395 (R3)

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