{"id":86277,"date":"2024-06-20T12:19:25","date_gmt":"2024-06-20T09:19:25","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ironfx-com-php8.wp-dev.int.theitops.net\/?p=86277"},"modified":"2024-06-20T12:19:25","modified_gmt":"2024-06-20T09:19:25","slug":"oil-outlook-bulls-continue-to-dominate-oil-market","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.ironfxcn.com\/es\/oil-outlook-bulls-continue-to-dominate-oil-market\/","title":{"rendered":"Oil Outlook: Bulls continue to dominate oil market"},"content":{"rendered":"

Oil prices continued to be on the rise since last report<\/a>, and the bullish sentiment for the commodity seems to remain present. In today\u2019s report we are to have a look at the data relating to the US oil market, and continue to view the fundamentals surrounding the international oil prices. To conclude the report we will also provide a technical analysis of WTI\u2019s daily chart.\u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Bearish signals in the US oil market?<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

There were some bearish signals stemming from the US oil market as on the one hand, we saw Baker Hughes reporting another decrease of active oil rigs in the US economy. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

The release tended to signal reduced oil demand in the US oil market which could weigh on oil prices should it be extended. The case for oil bears tended to intensify in the late American session on Tuesday, as API reported an increase of US oil inventories by 2.264 million barrels, a figure erasing the drop reported the week before. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

The release tended to imply the existence of a slack in the US oil market as demand was not able to catch up with production levels. For further confirmation of a the existence of a slack in the US oil market, we highlight the release of the weekly EIA crude oil inventories figure in today\u2019s American session. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Should EIA also report an increase of oil inventories, then we may see the release having a bearish effect on oil prices as it would justify the picture provided by API. On the flip side, should EIA report a drawdown as it is currently being expected, it may muddle the waters for oil traders and ease any bearish effect.\u00a0\u00a0 \u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n

OPEC\u2019s demand outlook<\/strong><\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

On the demand side of the international oil market we note the statement of OPEC\u2019s General Secretary Haitham Al Ghaisthat peak oil demand is not on the horizon. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

The statement contradicted IEA\u2019s forecasts, for demand in oil to peak before 2030, due to the rise of EVs and renewable energy sources. OPEC\u2019s General Secretary stated that IEA\u2019s comment was a “dangerous commentary, especially for consumers, and will only lead to energy volatility on a potentially unprecedented scale”. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

He also undermined IEA\u2019s forecasts by highlighting that oil demand growth is to remain strong in non OECD developing world, oil demand continues to increase sighting relative forecasts and that many parts of the world are witnessing a consumer pushback as populations comprehend the implications of ambitious and unrealistic net zero policy agendas. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

We tend to expect the feud to be continued and despite OPEC being understandably biased, its influence over the international oil market remains relatively dominant.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

China\u2019s demand may still be weak<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

On the flip side, we also note that one of the biggest oil consumers world wide, China seems to have had a slow start for the year in oil demand. It should be noted that China is increasing its stockpiles, as also refineries seem to be reducing their output. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

We also note the decline in oil imports by China, for the first five months of the year which if combined with mixed signals about growth of economic activity in the Chinese manufacturing sector, could imply that it may prove difficult for China to reach the market\u2019s oil consumption expectations. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Should we see additional signals for a possible easing of economic activity in the Chinese manufacturing sector like the deceleration of China\u2019s industrial output growth rate for May, we may see the market\u2019s worries for the outlook of oil demand intensifying and weighing on oil prices.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The situation in the Middle-East<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

In addition to the classic demand-supply factors that affect oil prices, we highlight once again the uncertainty caused on a fundamental level, by the Israel-Palestina conflict. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

It should be noted that market worries about the issue, tended to intensify in the past few days as the Israeli Defence Forces, including boots on the ground backed by tanks, warplanes and drones, moved further into the into the city of Rafah, killing eight people, as reported by Reuters. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

At this point we also highlight the flaring up of the war in the northern Israeli border, with Hezbollah, threatening even third countries, which it considers as assisting Israel. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Overall the situation seems to be escalating further and could intensify market worries for a wider flare up in the area, that in turn could tighten oil supply even further and thus could have a bullish effect on oil prices.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

An\u00e1lisis t\u00e9cnico<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

WTI Cash Daily Chart<\/strong><\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n
\"WTI<\/figure>\n\n\n\n