Pound continues to weaken...

The pound continued to retreat against the USD yesterday and during today’s Asian session, as Brexit worries seem to continue to dominate the sterling. Analysts tend to note that the direction has been downward in the past few days as the market seems concerned about post Brexit negotiations. Also analysts tend to note that the results of the pound’s poor performance could be related to the thin trading which is currently rather evident in the market, hence one should not draw to many conclusions. We expect the pound to continue its downward direction, should market worries about Brexit, continue to influence the pound. Cable continued its downward direction and in a decisive movement yesterday clearly broke the 1.3015 (R1) support line, now turned to resistance. The pair seems to continue to be guided by the downward trendline incepted since the 18th of the month and as long the prementioned downward trendline continues to command the pair’s price action, we maintain a bearish outlook for the pair. Also please be advised that the RSI indicator in the 4 hour chart is near the reading of 30, which on the one hand seems to confirm the dominance of the bears, while on the other hand may also be starting to hint towards an overcrowded short position for the pair. Should the bears actually continue to guide the pair’s direction, we could see it breaking the 1.2820 (S1) support line and aim for the 1.2600 (S2) support level. Should the bulls take over, we could see the pair breaking the prementioned downward trendline and start aiming for the 1.3015 (R1) resistance line. Should R1 be broken we could see cable next stop being at the 1.3170 (R2) resistance level.

…While the Aussie finds support in the US-Sino relationships…

The Aussie seems to find some support in the further improvement of the US-Sino relationships as a risk on sentiment seems to support the commodity currency. Once again, we tend to maintain some worries about the recent escalation in the issue with North Korea’s intentions. According to media, China said on Monday that it will lower tariffs on products ranging from frozen pork and avocado to some types of semiconductors. However, we tend to consider Aussie as mirroring a generally positive sentiment about the US-Sino relationships, a sit has been strengthening since past week. Should there be further positive headlines about the issue we could see the AUD strengthening even further. AUD/USD tested a couple of times yesterday the 0.6930 (R1) resistance line, as it continued to find fresh buying orders along its path. The pair seems to be guided by the upward trendline incepted since the 18th of December, hence we maintain a bullish outlook for the pair. On the flip side, it should be mentioned that the 0.6930 (R1) resistance line, seems to be forming a formidable resistance level for the pair currently. For our bearish bias to change we would require a clear breaking of the prementioned upward trendline. Should the pair actually come under the selling interest of the market, we could see it breaking the 0.6905 (S1) support line and aim for the 0.6875 (S2) support level. Should the pair’s long positions continue to be favored by the market, we could see it breaking the 0.6930 (R1) resistance line and aim for the 0.6955 (R1) resistance level.

Other economic highlights today and early tomorrow

No major releases are expected today and over the 25th of December, as the Christmas period, seems to maintain a slow market in Europe and the Americas at least. We expect the next major financial releases to be on Thursday the 26th of December in the American session, as the US Initial Jobless Claims figure is to be released. As for Friday’s Asian session, we get a number of financial releases from Japan, such as Tokyo’s inflation rates, Japan’s unemployment rate, industrial production growth rate and the retail sales growth rate, all for December.

AUD/USD 4 Hour