Friday’s economic calendar in focus

Today’s economic calendar is important for various instruments as the financial releases are from all around the world and volatility could rise substantially. From the UK we get the Retail Sales figures for July which are expected to drop and later the Preliminary Manufacturing PMI forecasted to rise. GBP/USD rebounded the majority of the lost ground since Wednesday and it would be interesting to see if the pair can surpass the 2019 high that was briefly tested in the past days. From the Eurozone we get the Preliminary France, German and Eurozone PMI readings, which are expected to rise and the EUR may get support if this is the case. In the US session, we also get the Eurozone Consumer Confidence expected to remain steady. Even though EUR/USD moved higher on Thursday and today’s Asian session, EUR traders may be in a wait and see position as the pairs trading activity has been somewhat subdued. From Canada we get the Retail Sales figures for June with the Core and Headline both forecasted to rise. If this scenario is to materialize the CAD could be in for a run higher. Yet, the CAD is also driven by the Oil market developments which at the moment are stagnant. Finally, from the US we get the Preliminary Manufacturing PMI and the Existing Home sales both forecasted to rise. Even though the USD was stronger on Wednesday’s late American session, it gave back some gains on Thursday possibly displaying the ambiguity traders have over the economic circumstances in the US which are still controlled by the covid19 outbreak. On Thursday, the Initial Jobless Claims and the Philly Fed Business Index both disappointed with their readings. On a weekly basis the S&P500 and the Nasdaq100 had performed upward sessions until Thursday while the DJIA was lower. Yet, most of markets attention remains on stocks like Apple, Tesla, Amazon and Microsoft. WTI’s price remained mostly nearby $42.50 per barrel on Thursday even though at some point the commodity broke below $42 as demand remains at questionable levels currently. Silver and Gold moved higher on Thursday regaining ground since the FOMC meeting minutes ended with a selloff for precious metals. Gold’s movement lower was greater than Silver’s, thus a rebound for the yellow metal may take more time. The same price action continued in today’s Asian session. GBP/USD was the biggest upward mover since yesterday compared to other major currency pairs. Cable has breached our (S1) 1.3165 support level and is currently heading towards 1.3260 which is the highest price the currency pair has reached in 2020. However, if Cable is to move even higher, then the (R1) 1.3335 resistance level could come into play. Our levels in an extended bullish run higher are also the (R2) 1.3420 and the (R3) 1.3505 resistance levels. In the opposite direction, a move lower could send GBP/USD to retest our (S1) 1.3165 support level last seen in the US session yesterday. Other levels lower that traders should have in mind are the (S2) 1.3050 support level that has been tested many times in August so far proving to be a solid line. Also the (S3) 1.2930 hurdle could be reached in a continuous selling trend. EUR/USD’s upward movement was also evident in the past sessions but not as much as Cable’s. EUR/USD is currently aiming for the (R1) 1.1895 resistance level. If the currency pair moves even higher, then we have also noted the (R2) 1.1935 line and the (R3) 1.1965 as possible stops due to the fact that they have been tested in the previous days. On the other hand, if EUR/USD comes under selling interest a move to test the (S1) 1.1850 support level could be performed. Lower we have also noted the (S2) 1.1800 level and even lower the (S3) 1.1745 hurdle as possible barriers in case of a strong selling momentum.

Other economic highlights today and early Monday

Today’s events have already been considered in our commentary above. Please note that no major events have been noted for Monday’s Asian session.

GBP/USD daily chart

Support: 1.3165 (S1), 1.3050 (S2), 1.2930 (S3)
Resistance: 1.3335 (R1), 1.3420 (R2), 1.3505 (R3)

EUR/USD 4 hour chart

Support: 1.1850 (S1), 1.1800 (S2), 1.1745 (S3)
Resistance: 1.1895 (R1), 1.1935 (R2), 1.1965 (R3)

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