{"id":123417,"date":"2025-11-25T15:08:12","date_gmt":"2025-11-25T13:08:12","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ironfx-com.wp-dev.int.theitops.net\/?p=123417"},"modified":"2026-01-15T16:22:36","modified_gmt":"2026-01-15T14:22:36","slug":"golds-weekly-update-markets-anticipations-for-the-feds-intentions-seem-to-remain-key-for-the-direction-of-gold","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.ironfxcn.com\/en\/golds-weekly-update-markets-anticipations-for-the-feds-intentions-seem-to-remain-key-for-the-direction-of-gold\/","title":{"rendered":"Gold\u2019s Weekly Update: Market\u2019s anticipations for the Fed\u2019s intentions seem to remain key for the direction of gold"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

Gold\u2019s edged higher since our last report <\/a>yet the market may still have some hesitation to pump it higher. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

In today\u2019s report we are to have a look at the market\u2019s expectations which are regarded currently as key for gold\u2019s direction, financial release that could affect gold\u2019s direction, the validity of the negative correlation of gold with the USD at the current stage and geopolitical issues. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

The report is to be complemented with a technical analysis of gold\u2019s daily chart. \u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The market\u2019s expectations for the Fed\u2019s intentions<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Since our last report, the market\u2019s expectations for the Fed\u2019s intentions have dramatically shifted. In past week the Fed was expected to remain on hold in the December meeting. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Fed Fund Futures now imply that the market expects by 73% the bank to proceed with a rate cut in the December meeting.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The flipping of the market\u2019s expectations was helped also by comments made by Fed policy makers such as NY Fed President Williams who stated that the bank\u2019s rates could fall \u201cin the near term\u201d. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

On the flip side the bank\u2019s hawks such as Kansas Fed President Schmid seem to maintain their position to keep rates steady. We are entering the bank\u2019s moratorium period before the Fed\u2019s interest rate decision on the 10th of December, so comments by Fed policymakers may be reduced.\u00a0 \u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Financial releases that could affect gold\u2019s price<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Also we highlight major financial releases that could affect gold\u2019s price over the past week. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Main interest of gold traders tends to revolve around inflation and employment which could affect also the Fed\u2019s intentions. We note later today the release of the US PPI rates which are measuring inflation at a producers level, while the weekly ADP employment figure may also affect the markets. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Yet the highlight may be the release of the PCE rates for September, the Fed\u2019s favourite inflation metric. A possible acceleration of the rates implying a possible resilience of inflationary pressures may weigh on gold\u2019s price and vice versa. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Also we note the release of the GDP rate for Q3 and a considerable slowdown of the rates could support gold\u2019s price as the uncertainty for the US economic outlook could rise.\u00a0 \u00a0\u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Geopolitics that could affect gold\u2019s price.<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Another issue that gold traders tend to keep an eye out for, are geopolitics. Currently we note the improvement of the US-Sino relationships, after US President Trump\u2019s and Chinese President Xi\u2019s phone call. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

The US President was reported to visit China in Spring next year, in another sign of improvement, which in turn may weigh on gold\u2019s price as market worries could ease. Furthermore we note the continuous efforts for an agreement for a peace plan in Ukraine. The issue seems to be further complicated that an agreement would have to be reached between the US, Ukraine, Russia and the EU.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Please note that Russia has not responded yet. Should we see an agreement being reached it could weigh on gold\u2019s price while a continuance of the war and a possible escalation, say for example with NATO troops officially putting boots on the ground in Ukraine could support gold\u2019s price as uncertainty would intensify. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Lastly we also note the situation in Venezuela, as the US have declared its President Maduro a member of a terrorist organisation. The labeling of the Venezuelan President by the US opens new possible courses of action, including military action. A possible escalation could also support gold\u2019s price as uncertainty in Latin America could rise.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Negative correlation of the USD with Gold\u2019s price remains inactive<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Lastly we note that the negative correlation of the USD with Gold\u2019s price seems to be currently inactive. Over the past week, gold\u2019s price remained relatively stable while the USD index, was on the rise. It\u2019s characteristic that even yesterday when gold\u2019s price rose notably the USD remained rather stable. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Also the continuous drop of US yields over the past week seems to have created no major support for gold\u2019s price hence the negative correlation of gold\u2019s price with US bonds, as alternative safe haven investment to gold, seems also to remain inactive at the current stage. \u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Gold Technical Analysis<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

XAU\/USD Daily Chart<\/strong><\/strong><\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n
\"XAU\/USD<\/figure>\n\n\n\n