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The USD tended to weaken against most of its counterparts yesterday, while US stock-markets were up and running as risk on mood tended to dominate the markets. The transition of power from Trump to Biden has started as noted yesterday, easing market’s uncertainty considerably, while it ignored news that COVID 19 cases were on the rise. Analysts tend to underscore the choice of Janet Yellen at the head of the Treasury department as a substantial relief for the markets as an expansionary fiscal policy is expected by the new US government. Its characteristic of the market’s risk on mood that Dow Jones has reached new record highs surpassing the reading of 30000 and should the risk on mood continue to characterise the markets we could see the USD weakening further, while today’s financial releases could also capture trader’s interest. Dow Jones, opened with a positive gap breaking the 29680 (S1) resistance line, now turned to support and continued to test the 30090 (R1) resistance level.
We tend to maintain a bullish outlook for the index, based mostly on the fundamentals surrounding it and the strong upward movement of the index. It should be noted though that the RSI indicator below our 1 hour chart has reached the reading of 70, mirroring the presence of the bulls, yet at the same time may imply that the index is overbought, and a correction lower is imminent. Should the bulls actually maintain control over the index, we could see it breaking the 30090 (R1) resistance line and aim for the 30500 (R2), advancing into unknown waters. Should the bears be in charge of the index’s direction, we could see it aiming if not breaking the 29680 (S1) support line on its journey southwards.
WTI prices rise to 8-month high
WTI rose for a sixth consecutive day yesterday, ignoring an API report that showed a considerable unexpected built up in US crude oil inventories. The rally seems to be driven by increased hopes that a COVID-19 vaccine will boost fuel demand as a return to some sort of normality seems to be nearing. Analysts tend to note that the broader market is in a de-risk mode and seems to be supporting the commodity’s prices as well. Producers in the OPEC+ group have been withholding production levels to support prices as pandemic lockdowns measures decreased demand substantially. We expect that should the positive mood continue to guide the markets; we could see oil prices continuing to rise.
WTI prices as mentioned rose yesterday breaking above the 45 (S1) resistance line, now turned to support. We maintain a bullish outlook for the commodity’s prices yet we would also like to note that the RSI indicator below our 4-hour chart has broken above the reading of 70, confirming the bull’s dominance yet at the same time may imply that the commodity’s long position could be overcrowded and the possibility for correction lower is ripe. Should black gold’s buying momentum persist, we could see it breaking the 46.70 (R1) resistance line and aim for the 49.60 (R2) level. Should WTI come under the selling interest of the market, we could see its price action breaking the 45.00 (S1) line and aim for the 43.20 (S2) support level.
Other economic highlights today and early tomorrow
Today’s financial releases seem to concentrate in the American session as we get a slew of data from the US. We note the release of the durable goods orders growth rates for October, the 2nd GDP estimate for Q3, the trade balance for October, the weekly initial jobless claims figure the consumption rate and the number of new home sales both for October, the University of Michigan consumer sentiment final reading for November and the EIA weekly crude oil inventories figure. While during the early Asian session tomorrow, we get New Zealand’s trade data for October, while later on we get Australia’s CAPEX growth rate for Q3. Also note that UK’s finance minister is scheduled to speak and the Fed is to release the minutes of its last meeting late in the American session.
US30 Cash H1 Chart
Support: 29680 (S1), 29315 (S2), 28900 (S3)
Resistance: 30090 (R1), 30500 (R2), 30950 (R3)
WTI H4 Chart
Support: 45.00 (S1), 43.20 (S2), 41.50 (S3)
Resistance: 46.70 (R1), 49.60 (R2), 51.60 (R3)
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